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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Carson who wrote (15303)	3/18/1998 12:49:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

<<<Oil traders remained skeptical of Venezuela's move and many expected prices to stay weak. Venezuela's call for an OPEC/non-OPEC agreement is a "red-herring," said Nigel Saperia, managing director of oil trading at Bankers Trust International in London. Such a deal is "unlikely, although there is no doubt that oil producers are feeling the pain," he added. He said oil prices haven't yet hit their lowest level for this year, not discounting occasional rallies. >>> I like this. Plenty of oil bears out there that haven't switched team yet. :) -Lucretius

To: John Carson who wrote (15303)	3/18/1998 1:22:00 PM
From: Czechsinthemail	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

These are tough waters to swim in unless you are able to take a long term view. Many oil traders continue to predict lower oil prices based on the current bearish fundamentals, while OPEC members can goose the market by talking about a meeting. Both have compelling reasons to manipulate the markets with their comments. There is obviously a powerful logic behind an OPEC meeting that would prop up oil prices, but without compelling evidence that there will be both an OPEC or super-OPEC meeting and a workable agreement, I think there is a good chance oil prices and drilling stock prices will weaken as the bearish view reasserts itself. The other uncertainty I see is how these companies fit into an overall stock market context. Though I think the likelihood of drillers outperforming over time is extremely high, they may go down a bunch if the overall market weakens while the oil price fears are up in everyone's face. The camouflaged bullish news has been the ongoing reduction of crude levels reported by API and the Dept. of Energy. Though I think caution rather than raging bullishness makes sense here, I think long term investors will do great simply buying and parking their shares. Baird

To: John Carson who wrote (15303)	3/18/1998 1:40:00 PM
From: Thean	Respond to of 95453

John, contrary to what Baird says, parking your money in this sector will make you no money until oil price bounces back up to pre-January level. To make money one has to trade. By the way and speaking on general term now, buying and holding since January produced absolutely no return, if not loss, if one held on to a driller. However, if one trade smartly, one can collect at least a 5% return in each short cycle swing. Look at the chart. Listen to Ron's model. Having said that, I do counsil patience for those who don't know what to do and have no system to trade on. When don't know what to do, just wait it out and don't read any of these posts and come back next year. Your drillers should be shining brightly by then.