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Non-Tech : Any info about Iomega (IOM)? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Rocky Reid who wrote (50635)3/18/1998 3:30:00 PM
From: Naggrachi  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 58324
 
<<IOM Book Value is $1.61
IOM has plenty of room to fall before it hits Book Value. My predictions of sub-$5 share prices by June do not seem so outlandish if viewed by looking at the fundamentals.>>

siliconinvestor.com

Zead



To: Rocky Reid who wrote (50635)3/18/1998 3:46:00 PM
From: Bill Lin  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 58324
 
Rocky,
at what price would jaz 2 have to sink for you to want to buy it? My guess is $159 for today. Would that satisfay your price point? I am really curious!

I don't believe that IOM will decend beyond $5. I know book is really low, but the fundamental revenue stream is still potent. At $5, the stock will sell in parity with the HDD market (using 283mm shares, mkt cap is $1.4billion, divided by $2 billion est. in sales for fy '98) of 0.7

If you go lower, then someone WILL scoop them up, or try to.

The previous argument was for SEG or WDC to buy them. I think a company with a multiple of 5.0 price to sales ratio would be more interested!

No clue who. lots of speculation in my head. But thats just if the market holds up and sales don't continue to decline, and if ...

so its not a strong rationale, but its there, and will and should give pause to the idea that the stock will tumble to below book.

:)
BL
ps
email me your response on jaz2 if you want privacy. I can't read email until thursday though. gremlins!



To: Rocky Reid who wrote (50635)3/18/1998 7:54:00 PM
From: Rational  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 58324
 
For technological companies with monopolistic positions, the book value will be insignificant compared to the market value. You seem to be in a different world, IMHO, (no offense intended). For a comparison, real assets (like steel mills) often have a larger book value than their market value.

The market value is the expected discounted future cash flows accruable to stockholders. The liquidation value of current assets (book value?) is included in these cash flows; but that is not all that one should count. Present earnings have very little to do with the market value. The IOM announcement triggers a reevaluation of the expectation about FUTURE cash flows. The P/E based on current earnings is USELESS. Analysts' revised estimates of future earnings are as worthless as they were before IOM announced.

IMO, one should basically judge an investment based on whether there has been an overreaction, how confident insiders are feeling about their company (like the huge insider buying at $8), etc. and proceed with guess and luck. The accounting numbers are useless, IMHO.

Sankar