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Technology Stocks : Microsoft - When to short -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Russ who wrote (85)	3/18/1998 10:46:00 PM
From: Mike McFarland	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 96

<so actual earnings are about 1/4 of reported earnings> I think you meant one fourth less, and I don't think that is correct either--my understanding is that the companies that dilute earnings the most, Dell for example, only do it to the tune of about ten percent, and earnings reported now are the diluted type anyway, depending on where you look. Anyway, with recent declarations from the company saying that there will be NO negative effect from Asia on this quarters earnings, and with another Analyst raising her target on the stock price, I'm throwing in the towel. The price may very well drop a bit back toward a more reasonable valuation, but it will probably do it on a day where many stocks tank faster--and those are the ones to put. How about some of the Internet hypes? Excite maybe.

To: Russ who wrote (85)	3/19/1998 3:30:00 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 96

>Any info on why now is a better time than >any other? From TA or FA perspective? Fundamentally I see it as overpriced. Given Microsofts dominance of the software industry and its already huge margins, I can't see it maintaining profit growth in the way needed to justify price. I have my own method of technical analysis based on some time series econometrics theory (nothing like any other TA method) which shows it has passed the peak for the moment. It last picked up the same signal at the peak in July and then a buy signal at the dip in December. >In general, shorting this stock is bad news. I made money on shorting MSFT back in December. David

To: Russ who wrote (85)	3/25/1998 11:44:00 PM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 96

Someday MS will go down, and due to their puts they might go down very hard, but do you have any reason to think the time is now? I put in a short-sale order yesterday before the market opened (I'm sleeping out here in Aus when it is open). This was on the basis of feeding the after hours price of $89 into my TA model. I got a sale price of $90.75 and am already making money after figuring-in brokerage (not much money). I'm expecting a decline in the next couple of days when I'll cover and then maybe a small run up again. Let's see if I'm right. David Stern