To: Brian Moore who wrote (17661 ) 3/18/1998 10:20:00 PM From: Hippieslayer Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 32384
You bring up a very difficult topic that is not easy to define. CPQ has been a great performer over the last year to two. BUt recently, it's been horrible. Based on your criteria,CPQ could be one of your stocks but someone--and I know someone who fits this description-- who bought into CPQ before their "problems" surfaced got hit hard as CPQ sold off. CPQ is a great company and has some short term problems it needs to get a handle on, but the sure bet type of company isn't always a sure bet. IBM is another prime example. And while we are on the subject, earning growth is a hollow assumption. Anything can happen to company that can seriously alter it's projected earnings growth. Nothing in business is set in stone, iow. The best example that I like to use is when a company is expected by scumbag analysts to do 50 cents which would amount to 100% increase in earning growth over the same quarter last year and say a 50% growth over last quarters earnings. Let's say the company posts 45 cents instead of the 50 cents. Well, the company didn't hit the analysts projections yet they still did a hell of a job over last quarter and the same quarter a year ago. But because the company didn't "meet" analysts expectations (and don't forget about the dreaded "whisper numbers") the company's stock takes a hit even thought they still increased revenues and showed substantial growth. Doesn't quite add up does it? The really unique thing about investing is that some people on wall st look at different companies in different sectors differently. FOr example, internet stocks. Yahoo isn't making money yet trades at a level that is unjustified by my account. Yet, because the street and investors are in love with these types of companies that may never really make money, they will run up the price because they feel it's justified. After participating in the market, I have come to understand that most things don't make sense when it comes to wall st. You just hope that more times than not, you are on the right side and not on the wrong side.