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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AlanH who wrote (40255)	3/19/1998 6:11:00 PM
From: Gary Korn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

Closing prices of selected network stocks, Thur., 3/19/98: ASND 32.75 +.75 32.69 b 32.75 a 90x10 87485 16:01 33.00 h 31.06 l PAIR 20.31 -.50 20.25 b 20.31 a 10x14 8664 16:00 20.81 h 20.19 l COMS 33.81 +.31 33.75 b 33.87 a 12x510 77491 16:01 33.94 h 32.44 l CS+ 15.00 +.00 14.94 b 15.06 a 1x1 7214 16:01 15.56 h 14.94 l CSCO- 64.31 +.75 64.31 b 64.37 a520x15 75573 16:01 64.44 h 63.12 l NN+ 27.62 -1.12 27.56 b 27.69 a 10x10 10547 16:02 28.75 h 27.00 l NT+ 62.94 +.69 62.88 b 62.94 a500x100 5269 16:02 63.44 h 62.25 l NETA+ 69.44 -1.50 69.31 b 69.44 a 10x10 28851 16:01 71.25 h 69.13 l TLAB+ 66.87 +1.81 66.81 b 66.87 a 10x15 26211 16:01 67.50 h 64.94 l SHVA+ 10.44 -.50 10.38 b 10.44 a 10x23 13694 16:00 11.12 h 10.12 l XIRC+ 13.06 +.19 13.06 b 13.12 a 30x99 4257 15:58 13.12 h 12.88 l XYLN+ 25.00 +2.06 24.87 b 25.00 a 10x11 14819 16:00 25.12 h 22.62 l FORE+ 14.75 +.13 14.62 b 14.75 a 20x10 9445 16:01 15.00 h 14.62 l BAY- 27.69 +1.19 27.69 b 27.75 a 50x50 38193 16:00 27.94 h 26.12 l MRVC- 23.81 -1.03 23.81 b 23.94 a 10x10 3732 16:00 25.38 h 23.75 l LU+ 119.50 -1.19 119.44 b 119.56 a 20x20 34287 16:01 122.37 h 119.44 l MADGF+ 6.25 -.25 6.25 b 6.31 a 20x20 1486 16:00 6.62 h 6.00 l WSTL 13.44 -.06 13.37 b 13.50 a 15x10 1541 15:58 13.75 h 13.31 l QWST+ 40.44 +.69 40.31 b 40.44 a 2x10 11184 15:58 41.06 h 39.75 l CIEN- 48.00 +.00 48.00 b 48.31 a 10x10 8645 16:00 48.87 h 48.00 l NWX 322.78 +.00 00:00 .00 h .00 l

To: AlanH who wrote (40255)	3/19/1998 6:13:00 PM
From: frank/fla.	Respond to of 61433

Who knows is right! I feel we are way over sold have you seen the volume for the last week...panic selling came in especially today and yesterday, look at the posts here and yahoo! Yahoo even had principals from that blackmail firm who reported problems with some circuit give their b.s. ...in other words all the nuts had come outa the forest...we are going to have a correction but when, how much, scary you say...nope its called investing. You know Buffet doesn't own a share on MS BECAUSE ITS TO HIGH...he's been saying that since 86 and he has known Gates even longer...hell this is fun...win or loose.

To: AlanH who wrote (40255)	3/19/1998 6:19:00 PM
From: Peter Yang	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 61433

As of today, both March 30 puts and March 35 calls are out of money. Therefore if there is any manipulation, the manipulator shouldn't worry about these two options. The manipulator needs to work on March 30 calls and March 35 puts, both of them are in the money. The open interest for March 30 calls is 8953 and 7838 for March 35 puts. At what price, the MMs have to pay the least? Apparently the lower the price towards 30, the less the MMs have to pay. Let's look why: Assume ASND will stay between 30 and 35, i.e, 30+x, and the MMs have to pay: 7838(5-x) + 8953x = 39190 + 1115X. My computation would indicate that if x=0, the MMs would pocket the most of the money. Therefore, if there's any manipulation, there should be downward pressure tomorrow. My computation could be wrong, please comments. Thanks,

To: AlanH who wrote (40255)	3/19/1998 6:22:00 PM
From: AlanH	Respond to of 61433

As a clarification to #40255: The notion of some bizarre MM conspiracy theory is not material to predictive models. As a convenience, I have constructed a MasterMind (or, fruit picker) to reflect natural and orderly market behavior. If it's comforting or amusing, MM's can be viewed as puppets in the overall scheme of things.

To: AlanH who wrote (40255)	3/19/1998 6:30:00 PM
From: Jan Crawley	Respond to of 61433

Alan, Thank you very much for your analysis. Your intepretations are interesting and insightful. I assume that your opionion/observation with the following caveat still... The hunch is purely technical, not based on any fundamentals. No offense intended, I often wondered how/why do people decide to short certain stocks at certain points... I guess sometimes just purely technical...trading momentum... I really hope that you miss this time; because I would like to see $35 or a price close to it. I do think $35 is a reasonable value for Asnd before 1Q earnings. If our earnings are on target, Asnd will be higher. Very best to you, Jan

To: AlanH who wrote (40255)	3/19/1998 6:52:00 PM
From: Monica	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 61433

I was studying charts for cs,nn,bay,nt, and asnd. I looked at them during the period of 3/97 to the present. They all, with the exception of ascend, have a definite cyclical pattern of going up at the end of april/beginning of may. They all peak around september/october and then head back down. Ascend was the exception because of the 10K and then missing 3rd quarter 97. Most people have said ascend will do better in the second half. This cyclical pattern would help support that idea. Ascend is much more volatile than the rest of these stocks also. Run-ups on an average of 15-16 pts are usually a peak and then it falls back down about half that. It then starts back up with smaller peaks and valleys along the way. I would guess asnd will be at 47 at the middle of june and then fall back to about 40. I would also expect asnd to run up to 38 or more at the end of this month and the beginning of april. It should then retrace to about 35 and get ready for it's next run-up to 47. My thoughts for whatever they are worth.