Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric Yang who wrote (9772)	3/19/1998 9:29:00 PM
From: Phillip C. Lee	Respond to of 213173

Eric, There is nothing wrong about optimistic views on Apple because it has reasons to be believed in. I don't mind if you call me an extremely optimistic man on this board now. But, if you said that several months ago, then I would get trouble since the trend was not quite clear by that time. We all will see who will be the winner in less than a month. Phil

To: Eric Yang who wrote (9772)	3/19/1998 10:14:00 PM
From: Bill Jackson	Respond to of 213173

Eric, Please separate my criticism of Jobs and the gang of early thieves and robbers(Amelio, SCully etc) from any criticism of Apple the corporation, towards whom my comments have always been implementational of upwards progress(Get clones, licensed, get standard boxes, get share growth, not bottom line trimming to show profits etc). Right now a bubble of confidence is being ridden. As we all know bubbles grow and contract, and can burst. Bill

To: Eric Yang who wrote (9772)	3/21/1998 12:19:00 AM
From: Phillip C. Lee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 213173

Eric, As the Q2 reports are getting closer, I pay more attention on what we could come out the more accurate revenue/net income estimates and hence re-visited your site on Q2 estimates today. I agree with most of your assessments on revenue/Margin/Interest/cost, however, there are several points you might need to take into consideration: (1) Revenue (i) The factor of cloners phasing out from the last January (1/98) have been mentioned in your description, however you didn't seriously take into account for the number of units or revenue that could be generated from this factor. From January data, we knew Apple did pretty well. It generated #3 (11+%) revenue in retails, sold more than 7% of total pc's. We couldn't totally contribute to G3's sales, but disappearance of cloners should also be a major factor; (ii) If we trust Jobs' estimate of Apple has 5% of total pc market (we don't know he implied to amount of dollars or units.), your units and revenue estimates seem to be lower than what 5% should represent. (iii) The G3's units sold may increase as the prices of those were cut. This is a rather complicated issue. I don't think we need to figure out from sensitivity analysis. But, it certainly will impact the results significantly; (2) Margin - (i) The margin is changed due to: - the ratio of G3's to nonG3's; - prices cuts on G3's; Hence, I roughly agree with your 24.5%. However, I think we may get lower margin due to the combinations of the above two variables. (3) Interest - Agree. (4) Cost - (1) You might need to consider the cost saving (if any) on Newton's layoffs. Taking the action on Newton's in this quarter by Jobs may try to save several $m dollars since Q2 is the most important quarter under his adminstration so far. Based on the above comments on top of your fundamental analysis, I have reasons to be optimistic on Q2's outlook. Cheers. Phil