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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Burry who wrote (1263)	3/20/1998 12:47:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

Regarding valuation, there must be something we're missing, analyst 12-month price targets on TBR range from 140 to 180 I believe. SBC Warburg is the low man, and the only analyst I remember whose target is under $160.00. My feeling FWIW, assuming no disasters, is that the stock will push or maybe slightly surpass it's 52 week high just before privatization...169.25. There is absolutely no science behind this thought...I like the number. Here is the press release on the low estimate...THIS IS OLD NEWS. RESEARCH ALERT-Telebras (SAO:TEL_.P) price target cut Reuters, Monday, February 02, 1998 at 05:27 - OLD NEWS...OLD NEWS! SAO PAULO, Feb 2 (Reuters) - SBC (ZSE:SBVZ.N) Warburg Dillon Read Inc said it maintained its buy rating on Brazilian federal telecom holding Telebras but cut its year-end price target for the stock to $140 per American Depositary Share (ADS) from $190. "We are reducing our price target on Telebras to $140 per ADS from $190," analysts Zain Maneka and Vanessa Martelli said in a report. "Further valuation of the sector globally reveals that the wireline valuation is far less than current street estimates," they wrote. After adjusting for minority shareholder interest, Telebras' wireline, cellular and long-distance assets are worth $24.2 billion, $8.2 billion and $10.6 billion respectively, they said. The valuation was based on separate analyses of the businesses, they added. Telebras' locally listed subsidiaries will continue to trade after privatization and those who hold stock in the units are likely to be bought out in the market at a premium, the analysts said. "Therefore, investors should look towards a few attractive local names to get the upside potential," they wrote. They said Telebras represents "the best way to play the privatization game, with a potential upside of 30 percent. But there are a few attractive subsidiaries, including Telemig, Telerpar and Telerj. Telebras preferred closed Friday at 123 reais and its common ended at 103 reais in Sao Paulo and its ADR at 111 in New York. james.craig@reuters.com)) Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service

To: Michael Burry who wrote (1263)	3/20/1998 12:54:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 22640

First Call shows TBR trading at a '97 P/E of 13, '98 P/E of 12 and a 5 year growth rate of 15% - 19%, mean 17%. They also show a last 5 years growth rate of 29%. Doesn't make sense to me. Zacks shows a 5 year growth rate of 15% - 35%, mean 25%. sf