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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rick who wrote (265)	3/21/1998 5:37:00 AM
From: Mr Logic	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4509

Hi Rick I understand why you think it is strange to short PSFT right now, when there are other candidates out there. To me it is part of a balanced portfolio approach. One reason is that PSFT is well known. Look at what happened to ORCL when they missed by a couple of cents - the stock price ended up at less than half the value only a short time before. And Oracle's multiples are not as strained as PSFTs. I wouldn't disagree with your comments about the company intangibles. Regarding Y2K my view is that the effect of this is slowing, and will slow faster. I already see companies implementing ERP systems not for Y2K compliance as there is not enough time to be confident of full implementation in time. The BPR that often runs in parallel with systems implementation is one reason why it takes longer than it might. Take the largest companies in any sector and look how many of them have made a decision for a new ERP system in the past three years and I think you will see that the potential market is contracting. Sooner or later I think this will be reflected in the results of SAPHY, PSFT, BAANF etc.. I chose PSFT as the one to short, but really I am bearish on the whole sector over the next 18 months. P.