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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (1276)	3/21/1998 8:33:00 AM
From: Mark	Respond to of 5944

It seems to have been a very interesting week in the market, and I was wondering if anyone had experienced anything similar ? I have a small group of small caps which are a mixture of technology and oil. I have a larger "watch list" which is primarily medium cap technology stocks with a large percentage directly related to computers (PC, semis, peripherals, etc.,). Towards the end of the week, the DOW was up strongly, and the NASDAQ was down a little. However, what I experienced was quite different. My small caps were significantly up, with high volumes. My watch list was hammered. There was no obvious news driving any of the stocks (except for the oils). The NASDAQ was down 0.6% on Friday, but all the PC/related were down 2% or more. The DOW was up >1%, so presumably a large number of NASDAQ stocks were also up significantly ? (Suggesting a wide deviation of NASDAQ fortunes ?) There is insufficient data to say with any certainty, and the volumes of Friday were too low for it to be significant, but my experience of the last few days suggests to me that the money may be on the move from PC/techs to small caps and certain non-tech sectors. Of course I might just be reading into this what I am anticipating to see. I am of the belief that we are going to have a disappointing earnings season, and that whilst all the warning signs have been there, the market has ignored them. The market could now easily over-react. Would this simply be a movement of the money, or a full blown correction ? If this is right, then what this might do to ADPT's fortunes is anybody's guess. If it is perceived as a PC supplier, or if there is a general adjustment, then it will go down. If the money is simply on the move then it might be perceived as a value-play and go up ! On balance I think it is still too early for ADPT to be perceived as a value play and it will continue downwards. If a major adjustment now also occurs, then it will go down by a lot. Mark