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Technology Stocks : CheckFree (CKFR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Benny Baga who wrote (2740)	3/22/1998 3:24:00 PM
From: g_m10	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8545

Having no special knowledge in computers or finance I arrived at buying CKFR based only on my humble common sense. Strangely enough, this same common sense can't see any threat from MSFDC at least until several years from now. It even tells me that success of MSFDC would help CKFR lift off. Banks will never go into anything they think is not mature enough to be absolutely reliable. Very important sign of mature industry is competition within the industry with every competitor using mature technology. If a bank outsources ebilling, it can't turn on a dime later if something goes wrong with a single bill processor and start doing in-house processing. Any bank would love to have on start at least two capable competing processors to deal with. If something goes wrong with one of them, they can easily switch the rest of the volume to the competitor. This is clearly is not the case with ebilling. CKFR does have its technology ready. They cover all bases. The problem is they don't have an equal competitor. MSFDC with no tested technology to speak of beyond PR and immature CEO with his "dinosaur " view of banks unfortunately does not make even a distant second. As it appears to me now, most of the banks are sitting on the side lines and waiting for someone else to get all the steps of the ebilling tested. They are making from time to time PR statements, not losing customers yet, so what's the rush. Banks may start feeling some heat if City goes online with their homegrown technology and MSFDC back processing, but having Integrion they still don't have a choice. What if/when MSFDC succeeds? Then banks get a choice. Then they don't need to be forced into outsourcing, they will like to do it. Their main job is to handle other people money, the rest is a burden. They outsource cleaning, building maintenance, computer services, etc. They will outsource ebilling when they feel it is safe to do so. I guess most of the banks will outsource ebilling to both processors (CKFR and MSFDC), not necessarily in equal volumes. The best processor will get the most, the other one will have enough to keep them ready to switch to the full volume at any time. For all this reasons, every time I read that one more Integrion bank wants to try MSFDC as well, it tells me that now the bank means ebilling business. Every time I read that MSFDC failed, I feel that I have to wait with CKFR lift off a little bit longer. None of them can succeed on their own. Industry should succeed first. Just MHO.