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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark who wrote (1286)	3/21/1998 7:13:00 PM
From: Starowl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5944

Mark: Interesting. I wonder how Morgan Stanley calculates the Symbios merger into Adaptec's '99 earnings estimate. Or if they did. Hard to see clearly through smoke and mirrors. Squirrel that projection away and let's haul it out next March and see how close they come. Insider sales are legal, of course. And insiders can't help acting on what they know about earnings. But I wonder whether or not those selling their shares collaborated in a conspiracy to defraud all other shareholders. As an investor who took it on the chin, I can sympathize with those looking for scapegoats. But it wasn't just Adaptec that nosedived. Look at the hard drive makers. A number of big tech companies saw significant stock devaluations in December-January. Was there a mass conspiracy to screw everyone? As an investor, I see it as my responsibility to read the tea leaves. By the time earnings warnings hit the street, it is usually too late for most of us to avoid a loss. On the issue of alleged deals, implied or otherwise, to take back unsold merchandise, that would not be in the investor's interest, because it would temporarily inflate earnings. I just don't know how common the practice is. Anybody know? The legal briefs on the case naturally would paint the worst possible picture of the situation. Ever see divorce papers? Adaptec has insurance to help defray any settlement. Hope it's enough. Might be useful to read again a statement from Adaptec's 10K: "This market, which itself is dependent on the market for personal computers, has historically been characterized by periods of rapid growth followed by periods of oversupply and contraction." Thanks for the links. Starowl