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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: marc chatman who wrote (15862)3/22/1998 12:20:00 PM
From: Sam Citron  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95453
 
Don't be so quick to short the airlines. Though fuel costs account for between 10 and 15% of total revenues, the airlines are doing a much better job of making money. Their computers are able to tell them exactly how much discounting is necessary to fill the plane. And they are not expanding capacity as quickly as previously. Just as lower fuel prices don't spell doom for the drillers or oil-service companies, neither does $15 oil spell doom for the airlines. Just take a look at how much free cash flow AMR is generating. Besides, long airline stocks are a nice hedge for an energy portfolio. If airlines swoon on Monday, I will be a buyer.

SC



To: marc chatman who wrote (15862)3/22/1998 12:51:00 PM
From: Erwin  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
Marc,

The airline short sounds like a good play on this news. Does anyone have any input into which airlines to short and which ones to avoid. I was thinking about making the play using puts but because I don't follow airlines I am stuck with a research/knowledge shortage. I am going to start to try to fill in the blanks now and if anyone can help I would appreciate it.

Thanks,

Erwin