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To: Gersh Avery who wrote (31006)	3/22/1998 3:40:00 PM
From: Dave Gahm	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

Gersh, Concerning slowing demand for $1500-$2500 PCs...do you think the direct sellers like DELL and GTW are being impacted or does their focus on the high end consumer market offer some immunity? DELL does of course have exposure to the enterprise market, which will be be seeing big time discounting by CPQ and IBM pushing prices down, but so far neither DELL or GTW have given any hints that they are hurting. Comments? Dave

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (31006)	3/22/1998 4:38:00 PM
From: DavidG	Respond to of 53903

Gersh, IMHO there is a quantum change taking place within the PC industry. The shift to the sub $1000 machine caught Intel, and many of the boxmakers, by surprise. Consumers of PC are now at a point where they have slowed down their purchases to see if prices will get even lower. This makes the situation even worse for the semi folks. This is exactly right and a real Problem for the CPU, graphics, motherboards, and Disk drives as well as memory. But this is more of a reason for 16mb to be around for a while as oppose to giving up share for 64mb. Boxmakers only care about bit price and nothing else. They will not pay one cent more for 64mb since there is no noticeable gain. Crossover has been pushed out and will continue to be pushed out as long as 32mbyte and less modules are all that is needed for a computer. PII is at the critcical point with 64mbyte systems...which means (2) 32mb modules. Any higher requirement and they are almost forced to go to 64mbit chip memory modules. I see at least 1 more year for 16mb memory, which MU is leading in, and then by that time MU will be a low cost producer of 64mb memory. How much money MU makes during this timeframe unfortunately depends on the stability, or lack thereof, of the SEA companies...and also if MU can work its way out of DRAM only products and into something yielding higher margins. I believe the most significant problem MU faces right now is the currency disparity with SEA. Again .. I'll back away and watch you folks Don't do that...You contributed more in just one post than some with many posts...as you have already alluded to in a later post.<g> Good Luck Trading DavidG

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (31006)	3/22/1998 4:40:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 53903

gersh, don't mean to insult you... but we think alike ;-) hey, i still use a 486. i'm not upgrading until i know every pc mftr is losing money ;-) you can't type faster on a pii 300 than on a 486. sure, it does save some time to have a faster box. that isn't the point. the point is whether that time saved can actually lead to more production rather than shootin' the sh*t at the water cooler. these sub $500 boxes (p166, 1.5 g, 16 mb sdram, 33.3) boxes from hp are fast enough for 90%+ of the market. wait until the y2k money starts to impact the mis free flow of cash. that is going to be a double whammy. me thinks i'm going to buy some dell leap puts through jan 2000. dell s/b limping along by then with a 10-20 pe on much lower eps...

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (31006)	3/22/1998 4:58:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 53903

gersh, sorry to hear your puts on gtw weren't profitable.i don't know the details, but when apple reported stellar eps i threw in the bag on gtw and said they'd probably have a good q. anyway, i do see dell and gtw having problems through the eyar 2k due to the issues you mentioned coupled with the y2k issue. seriously pondering some jan 2k leap puts on dell. good luck. it is hard being so far ahead of everyone that thry don't understand it and spend their money accordingly. 1998 is turning out exactly like i (and some others) said it would (actually a little worse!) in mid 1997. too bad the dolts ran mu from $40 to $60 on the edge of the cliff. that is, unless you were like kerry and bought puts in the $50s and saw them go up 700-1100%. in any case, the upside was hard to watch. that is why time and company diversification is key. good luck. ps - swtx should do great even in this competitve computer market. that is why i like them so much. check them out. throw all the dirt you can. this is everyone's opportunity to rail on a skeeter long position. s/b fun ;-) i like contrary opinions. at least well thought out contrary opinions.