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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Erwin who wrote (15917)	3/22/1998 6:15:00 PM
From: john david martin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

As one that owns both an airline stock and a oil service stock I would caution any one from assuming that one is dead and the other is on it's way back-up. I believe that a higher stock appreciation could still come from airline stocks over oil service stocks in the next few months, although in the longer term oil services's are today's best value. With the recent history of failed OPEC attempts to restrict oil and all the oil experts recent cautious comments whether this is the bottom of oil prices can one now really believe this is going to be a SUSTAINED takeoff for this sector . With Japan on the verge of sinking to a depression economy taking Asia with it, I believe most economists are still worried with deflation and falling commodity prices. To suddenly believe that OPEC can turn around oil prices long term in the mist of current world economy may be a bit premature.I think that what these announcements indicate is that we may have reached a bottom to oil prices. Can someone tell me the last time that OPEC was able to make a quota reduction stick and do you really believe that the non-OPEC countries will go along.

To: Erwin who wrote (15917)	3/22/1998 8:15:00 PM
From: SJS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Erwin, There is risk in shorting the airlines, HOWEVER, most of the recent push ("icing") is not intrinsic. It's a direct result of the much publicized (hyped) inverse relationship of oil's downfall. Therefore, for the mo-mo risk taker, a ST short of airlines while oil basks agains in the limelight of the production re-arrangment might enable some money to be made. Someone recently said that airlines have made great strides in their efficiency, much like the drilling business. I think that their downturn will not be severe, but will occur. I would short them, but don't know the sector very well. I don't think I can short a sector fund, but may do so with the index. The fun part of this is we can say tomorrow, "I told you so!". Let's see what happens. It can cost nothing to just predict and watch for the outcome. I'm looking for forward to basking in the potential limelight of oil's returns to stronger days.