To: Lalit Jain who wrote (8695 ) 3/22/1998 8:57:00 PM From: goldsnow Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116760
Judging by Nikkei reaction should be another Dow record next week.. Bull Stampede Could Be Slowed by Earnings 08:16 a.m. Mar 22, 1998 Eastern By Marjore Olster NEW YORK (Reuters) - There appears to be little on the horizon to stop the stampede of bulls from charging down Wall Street again this week, though analysts say the herd could be slowed by corporate profit warnings. The market is likely to be propelled higher mainly by portfolio window-dressing. Money managers whose funds have underperformed the market will be rushing to put cash into rising stocks before the quarter ends to enhance returns. ''No portfolio manager wants to be caught holding cash at the end of a quarter in a rising market,'' said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at First Albany. ''That will give the market a positive bias next week.'' The Dow Jones industrial average topped off the week by jumping 103.38 points Friday to 8,906.43, crossing 8,900 for the first time and setting its fifth straight record. For the week the it rose 303.91. The dizzying rally comes against a backdrop of solid economic growth, low interest rates and inflation and very low unemployment. Economic data confirming that picture have provided fertile ground for stocks. Strong European markets are also encouraging investors. London's FTSE 100 index rose above 6,000 for the first time Friday though it closed below that level. The market has so far shrugged off a series of profit warnings from major U.S. companies that expect their earnings to fall short of Wall Street estimates this quarter. The pace of pre-announcements could pick up next week as the quarter comes to a close. ''There will be landmines along the way,'' said Johnson. ''The real question is, 'Where are they going to come from and are they going to overwhelm the market?' They haven't yet.'' Thom Brown, managing director of Rutherford Brown and Catherwood, said the market is ignoring a ''wishy-washy earnings outlook'' and looks overbought. ''But the market has so much momentum behind it, it is going to be tough to see any meaningful sell-off until the enormous amount of domestic and foreign money stops pouring into it,'' Brown said. ''I am very much in awe of this market. I just don't see anything on the horizon that is going to knock it down,'' he added. The nation's largest companies are expected to report average earnings increases of 1.7 percent from a year earlier, down sharply from the 10.4 percent growth analysts were forecasting at the start of 1998, according to companies that track Wall Street profit forecasts. That would be the slowest growth since the fourth quarter of 1991, when profits for companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 index were flat. Many analysts have said the market needs to pause because stock prices have raced ahead of earnings power. ''We will get a pullback of 7 to 10 percent between now and the end of the summer,'' said Eric Miller, chief investment officer at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette. But Miller also said he did not expect a correction in the very near term unless broad concerns arose in the market over corporate earnings in the second half of the year and in 1999. Though profit warnings from some big companies have not done much damage to the broad market, they have hit individual stocks. The technology sector in particular is showing signs of stress after warnings from Intel Corp., Compaq Computer Corp. and Motorola Inc. that earnings were hurt, partly by weak demand from Asia. ''There is lots of anecdotal evidence that semiconductor equipment manufacturers are getting beaten up pretty badly in terms of Asia,'' said First Albany's Johnson. He said users in Asia were cutting back orders amid the financial turmoil. Oil stocks should continue to recover from a slump induced by falling crude prices. Crude moved off nine-year lows this week and a number of analysts said the stocks were an attractive buy at current levels. The Nasdaq composite index rose 17.5 points at 1,789.16 for the week. The Standard & Poor's composite index of 500 stocks rose 30.57 to 1,099.16. The NYSE composite index of all listed common stocks was up 15.44 at 572.61. No major economic data is due out next week. Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.