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Technology Stocks : OnSale Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mo Chips who wrote (973)	3/23/1998 2:18:00 PM
From: Patrick Carter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4903

I believe these internet shopping sites are going to make a lot of short sellers rich.The competition is going to kill them.Another new internet shopping site went public today.cybershop.com.I checked out their web site,and I think it is a lot better than onsales site.

To: Mo Chips who wrote (973)	3/23/1998 6:09:00 PM
From: Pauly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4903

I agree, the life length of a customer would be interesting to see. Or maybe ONSL should "de-register" bidders who have not made a bid in, say, 12 months, which would theoretically allow the number of customers to drop. That way, we would get more meaningful statistics about the number of active registered bidders. Or similarly ONSL could allow all registered bidders to perpetually remain registered, but they could show statistics on how many of those bidders remain "active" bidders. I was doing more review of the last press release. The 3 millionth bid was made in early January. The 4 millionth bid was made in March, less than 2 1/2 months after the 3 millionth bid, as stated in the press release. Assume that the 4 millionth bid was 2 1/4 months after the 3 millionth bid. This means they had 1 million bids in 2 1/4 months, which extrapolates to 1.3 million bids for the entire 1st quarter. So I expect about 1.3 million bids for 1st quarter, compared to 728,000 for the 4th quarter. This is a 79% increase. Does this mean we can expect a 79% jump in revenues in 1st quarter? Yes, if the average order size remains at $142 or higher, and if 1 out of every 3 bids continues to result in a "winning" order. If these come true, the result would be a $59 million quarter. My hunch says that this is overoptimistic, but is it possible we can have a $50M+ quarter? It should be interesting to follow. I would think that, if this scenario pans out, we would see a nice spurt in the stock price:) Paul