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To: john smith who wrote (23121)	3/23/1998 2:00:00 PM
From: Satyr	Respond to of 97611

An interesting post for the market and sector as a whole To: +David O'Berry (15367 ) From: +Robert Graham Sunday, Mar 22 1998 6:08PM EST Reply # of 15371 Don't you think it is time to look elsewhere for profits outside of the tech sector? Here are some of my thoughts on this matter FWIW. It will be interesting to find out what you see technically in the high tech industries. The tech sector in terms of providing leadership in the stock market has been eroding for some time now. The institutions have been selling into the hands of the eager speculative interests who had not caught on to their wholesale distribution of stock. There have been explicit signs of this large block selling for some time now. The buying on the dip mentality for the techs will likely not work anymore for the most part. I do hear that the communications industry is doing well. Still, it continues to surprise me that there is interest in the high tech sector when there apparently is a much better risk profile to be found elsewhere, like the sectors that have been the ongoing target of the institutional dollar. The drug industry comes to mind here. Now we have earnings season where there has been another predictable series of earnings warnings given by some of the tech leadership. This has been a theme for quite a while now in this sector which first showed up as earnings warnings and then earnings disappointments to support those earnings warnings. The difference this time around is that we get to see the extent of the Asian situation in terms of its impact on corporate earnings. If this Asian problem is very real, then we should see marked decreases in the earnings of companies that are exposed directly and indirectly to the Asian market. Making plays during the high tech earnings season in this combined setting of institutional selloffs, demonstrated dropping earnings growth, and this quarter's earnings announcements vulnerability to the Asian problem is IMO a strategy that involves allot of unecissary risk, particularly when there is so many other ways to make money in this market, even during the earnings season as earnings plays. In relationship to this observation, I have been finding that a very peculiar but still predictable market reaction to slowing earnings growth in the market. This is where the market becomes familiar with the earnings warnings and the earnings shortfalls. They begin to see the earnings warnings and disappointments as "business as usual". So they begin to buy into these stocks despite the bearish forward outlook for the company. The time of the P/E multiple expansion has arrived. This is why I never underestimate the power that the "familiar" has on people, and in particular what has recently become "familiar". IMO this is a sign that comes toward the end of a "bubble" market. So maybe a market correction of at least intermediate term porportions is in the works? Time will tell. And it will take time to unfold. If the market drops, the money will move into defensive issues which have nothing to do with the techs. The techs is no place to be for a market correction, if this is what you think will happen. Money does not look for value in a defensive play. Money looks for SAFTEY. Only AFTER the correction has finished and the market has bottomed out, then money will start to look for value. So in answer to your question, a market correction will continue to slice up the techs. You do not need to look that far back in the market to see evidence of this. Heck, we are only talking a few months ago. Each market rally saw less and less high tech participation. So there were signs as far back as a couple years ago that would of clued people in to an eventual selloff of the techs. I also suggest not to allow yourself to be swayed by the way the present market has been blowing off the earnings warnings and earnings disappointments this time around. Do not confuse market sentiment demonstrated by the more speculative element of the market with value plays for instance that are being made elsewhere by the large money interests. For that matter, there is no value where money (inflow) is not to be found, no matter how "undervalued" you think the company is in relationship to its stock. Just some thoughts to consider if you are a short term trader. It is just that as long as I have been following the market periodically through my life, for over 20 years now, there will always be many people to be found that can rationalize a losing position no matter how stark the signs are for potential losses. For there is a "story" to be had for every position available to be taken in the market. Who else is being sold the stock that is on its way down?? The market insiders do understand this psychology of the speculative public and take advantage of it in order to sell off their holdings in a company or industry. Bob Graham

To: john smith who wrote (23121)	3/23/1998 2:46:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

John; It's not just the dividend I was talking about, it's the effect it "may" have , were those pennies don't look like much to you , to some big players they could add up..and you wind up getting caught in that updraft..there are some big boys in the game and you can bet they are already ahead a lot, some of them against the box..you are at their mercy ..we are all minnows in this ..if they decide she has bottomed it won't make a hoot what we think, chance are some of them have set the 26th as a yea or na day..if it's ya..then forget the pennies.. as that will be the least of your loss. What do you think the big boys will think, just watch the 26th is all I'm really saying..to any short term short or trader. we are talking about a lot of shares not just 2000. Jim Ps Surely you've heard the story about the man who bent down to pick up a penny when he saw one..vs the man who thought they were nothing. BTW Brokerage houses don't laugh at pennies.. But being you have more money and are so much smarter than they are I guess it's ok for you to laugh at them.