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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (18101)	3/23/1998 8:18:00 PM
From: stockycd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

As technology becomes old, it becomes cheap.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (18101)	3/23/1998 8:59:00 PM
From: akidron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

but this does become a little problematic... when memory... which is kinda important in the information age.... sells so cheaply that manufacturers have negative gross margins trying to produce the stuff.... and when the market for pc's... is dependent on this virtual subsidy.... fyi... its not all that disimilar to oil at 12 bucks... unsustainable.... and the solution... take capacity out of the market... is possibly thae last thing... short term... u want to hear.... and it has not happened yet.. all that has happened is that the rate of increase in production has slowed.... IMO; IMHO; but I'm smiling Brian - today was a great great day....

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (18101)	3/23/1998 9:02:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian, Obviously, you've seen a long term chart showing DRAM prices. Yes, historically, they've fallen by 30% annually. And once they've fallen, they seldom bounce up for more than a month or so. Rather, the chipmakers have been forced to upgrade their technology taking DRAM technology to a new level. The Equipment makers have generally been more profitable than the DRAM makers. Informed industry insiders see the current glut coming to an end during 1998. i.e. - Steve Appleton of Micron, as well as the analysts that these leaders talk to at Smith Barney, Lehman, IDC, DataQuest, etc. The overcapacity will be cured not only by a doubling of bit demand but also by shutting down obsolete and unprofitable fabs. Who am I to believe? Informed sources or AMAT thread bears? When it comes to timing an investment decision, the Street isn't going to come to individual investors to verify that we all have taken our positions before the Street starts throwing money at the sector. Last time the Semi Equipment sector made it close to last place in the IBD sector list, it was in 1st place less than 6 months later. Will that happen again? Yes, though I don't know the timing. It could happen sooner. It could take more than 6 months. But I do know that no one is going to come and tell me the precise instant that the bottom has been reached. Best wishes, Ian.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (18101)	3/23/1998 11:30:00 PM
From: MileHigh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian and others it may pertain to, Why do you and others talk down to in a condesending (sp) manner certain individuals on this thread simply because they may have a different view point than yours. Why does it bother everybody so much that certain people may be bearish and others bullish?! Maybe you and others have put too many eggs in one basket!? Even so your day will come. This thread is starting to get silly...Let me explain my background so you can quickly dismiss me as not worth your time...I am a lurker who is trying a 30 day membership. You and others have probably forgotten more than I will ever know about semi's and equipment makers...I simply read this thread for pleasure and facts and appreciate all opinions.... It amazes me how personal people take certain posts....Almost as if your own child was being insulted....I guess to some people this thread is their whole life! Kind if sad if it is.... Happy Investing and Loosen up everyone!! MileHigh