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Gold/Mining/Energy : American Eco (ECGOF, ECX on Toronto exchange) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: david james who wrote (2228)	3/24/1998 1:39:00 AM
From: Michael Anthony	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2841

>>But I would be happy to see any sort of industry comparison with rational numbers - even including a discount for Canadian financials - that values them any lower than 10 - given that no analyst has predicted that Eco will make less than 99 cents/share fully taxed.<< How about the only opinion that matters...the market. They think it's worth high 8's. Now DBCO is history. Surely that potential was a reason to hold at these levels. Now it's gone. I don't think 10's are very close right now regardless of any analyst opinion. If you are hanging your hat on 99c because the analysts have, then you haven't learned anything this month. Besides, the 99c isn't using US GAPP and now that that is out, you can bet the market will ignore the 99c and use US GAAP to compare apples to apples. 1.08 at 10% tax = 66c using US GAAP for 97. So if 99c turns out accurate fo 98, that's still less than 66c GAAP. I have a hard time believing 99c is possible with 37% tax rate and a weak first quarter. I bet they also take a charge for the DBCO costs related to the debacle as well in Q2. Being on the sidelines, I certainly will not put any faith into that 99c estimate. It's a guess no better than they were guided to last year. Nobody can predict anything with any certainty, not even CFO Norris. I have no faith in his abilities whatsoever. Compare all you like, it never helped before. I'm no CPA, but I can use common sense to see that there is much more con than pro here even in the 8's. If I see a trailing PE of 10 based on 66c, I'll buy a little...maybe. Expecting a higher PE after all this mess of the last 3-4 weeks is unreasonable IMO. I plan on watching to learn what happens and take my lessons for other investments in the future, but I certainly am not compelled for any reason to pay current prices and I can't imagine many more are out there that will either. I hope it goes up on the news for you, but I can't see anything good about it. Tomorrow should be volatile IMO on this new news. It was fully valued IMO today with the possibilities DBCO offered for the future. What will the market think now? I don't want to buy it at what I consider more than full value now, especially when they will be having to come up with new ways to finance their growth that may be more dilutive. I can't imagine anyone thinking about paying higher prices tomorrow than we saw today because DBCO is history. But what the hell do I know?