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Technology Stocks : INVX Innovex Comdex Winner !! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Oliver who wrote (2330)	3/24/1998 10:33:00 AM
From: Tokyo VD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3029

Mark, I'm not bitter. It's funny, but management did a terrific job of giving guidance when the stock is going up or is still up. Now, when the stock has slid, they have provided no visibility. The estimates were reduced from $0.40 to $0.28. To get to numbers like this, the company would have been running at 7 million, not 9 million wires per week. This step off would have had to occur more than 6 weeks ago. Management said on the last conf. call that they had order visibility at least one quarter ahead. On that call, they refused to speculate on the softness they were seeing. The June quarter will be flat to down as well. Tokyo

To: Mark Oliver who wrote (2330)	3/24/1998 5:41:00 PM
From: Kurthend	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3029

Mark, This is a long post and I copied information from previous threads. Before you start reading, I would like to say that I am bewildered that if TokyoVD is right about the .28 EPS for this qtr , then why did INVX go up almost 2 points today on 1/2 million volume (200K above the average and up almost 300k over the last month average. APM is also up 20% today with 2 million in volume versus an ave of 600K. Maybe FY98 is just a bad year for dd stocks. I hope the analysts haven't figured in the revenue from HIF or the flexible interconnects for the flip chips. Anyway, here it goes: Below are the figures I just picked up today from the various analyst. They have all predicted slighty lower numbers or stayed the same from the last time I posted these figures about a month ago. Mar 98 Jun 98 FY98 FY99 I/B/E/S .34 .43 1.78 2.34 Zacks .37 ? 1.91 2.88 S&P ? ? 2.37 3.71 1st Call .38 ? 1.94 2.34 BELOW IS MY MEESAGE FROM ABOUT A MONTH AGO AND THE RELATED FIGURES: messages.yahoo.com@m2.yahoo.com This is in reference to a previous post of mine: Message 3613759 The reason I stated 32 cents a share for this qtr was due to the response I got from D. Keller. I had asked on previous occasions what they thought were safe numbers for the qtr. This figure was based on that response and is only a SWAG. Well anyway, I pulled up some figures from various analysts for this qtr and year. Here are the estimates: Mar 98 Jun 98 FY98 FY99 I/B/E/S .38 .48 1.88 3.00 Zacks .37 ? 1.91 2.88 S&P ? ? 2.37 3.71 1st Call .41 ? 2.05 3.00 I believe the S&P est for FY98 has not been updated and thus should be thrown out. The average for Mar 98 is around 39 cents. Based on I/B/ E/S and my conversation with INVX, the qtr ending Jun should net 48 cents. If the qtr ending Sep is equal to the 3rd qtr (may be optimistic since the summer is usually the slow qtr but then again the flip chips - flex circuits and HIF may start kicking in by then) then INVX again would earn 48 cents. The year would end IMO with earnings of around $1.83 (.48 + .39 + .48 + .48). The estimates above (discounting Zacks) average $1.96. It will be interesting to find out what the actual earnins will be for this qtr ending in Mar (To see if my .32 earnings estimate is closer that the analysts). The current PE for the estimated FY98 earnings (as of today's price) is approximately 12. I believe the 5 year average PE is around 15 or 16. So, the price is still fairly cheap. As you know, the estimates for FY99 are virtually impossible to tell due to the BTO models that DELL and other companies are now embracing. Heck, INVX can't even say with any certainty what their 3rd qtr will look like. I do believe that the HDD industry will turn around at some time in the not-so-far future and that INVX will take full advantage of the flip chip technology that Doug Fant has been talking about and what Haley has mentioned in previous CCs. A previous post by Doug mentioned a time frame of 12-18 months for the flip chip technology to come into full swing. In fact, Doug Keller mentioned that by the end of this FY and possibly this summer they will start earning revenue on their flex circuits for flip chips (Unknown revenue). I will stop rambling, but I thought you might enjoy the figures regarding INVX. Kurt THIS IS FROM TODAY'S YAHOO THREAD: messages.yahoo.com@m2.yahoo.com: josh, i heard an analyst in mpls lowered his #'s 2nd .28 was .40 3rd .35 was .51 4th .40 was .61 year 1.51 was 2.00 the stock is up 22.5 so who cares about the numbers. maybe the bears should focus on the #'s trending up, rather than the #'s being lowered. i don't know where the rest of the ests. are today. do you?