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Technology Stocks : Year 2000 (Y2K) Embedded Systems & Infrastructure Problem -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Mansfield who wrote (272)	3/26/1998 5:23:00 PM
From: John Mansfield	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 618

Techweb/Informationweek: 'But how about the thermostat and fax machines in your office, and the microwave ovens In recent weeks there seems to be a significant increase in attention for embedded y2k issues in the press; expresses more and more in 'laymen' terms (household gear etc). This is just one more example. John __________________ April 07, 1997, TechWeb News 2000-Compliant-Or Your Money Back By Bob Violino So you're readying your mainframes for the year 2000. But how about the thermostat and fax machines in your office, and the microwave ovens in the company cafeteria? According to recent testimony before a House subcommittee, appliances with embedded chips-including VCRs, microwaves, and programmable thermostats-will malfunction when "00" arrives. techweb.com

To: John Mansfield who wrote (272)	3/28/1998 4:24:00 AM
From: John Mansfield	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 618

A bit more optimistic: 'Y2K will not cause a problem that large' 'In this newsgroup's recent Y2K severity poll, many people had large variations in their responses based on how electric utilities would fair. I "lowballed" the response with a "3.0" (80 hour work weeks for those involved in the problem). Here is why. 1) Most base load power plants operated by U.S. electric utilities are OLD. The nuke plants were generally the last major base load plants to be put on line, mostly '75-'85. These plants were designed 10 years earlier (i.e not particulary high tech). Relatively few computer systems. Essentailly no embedded systems. Most fossil fuel plants were built before then and hydro plants definately were. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THERE AREN'T SIGNIFICANT Y2K PROBLEMS IN THE ELCTRIC INDUSTRY, but it does make the problem easier to solve than in other industries. Say 50% of the installed computer systems do have problems (our rate is 12 of 26). But these are systems that mostly monitor the plant, only sometimes control it, and therefore don't usually cause a plant trip. Upgrades have occured over the years, especially in coal plants and older nuclear plants, but these new systems are the ones the engineers then know the best, both for the inventory and the assessment phases of any Y2K program. Embedded systems have also crept in, and yes some do have problems (I don't have good numbers yet to provide actual failure rates of our embedded systems devices). However, unlike other industries, MOST POWER PLANT EQUIPMENT VENDORS ARE OPENLY IDENTIFYING THEIR PROBLEM MODELS (reference the home pages of Foxboro, Fisher-Rosemount, Modicon, Westronic, Allan-Bradley, etc. etc. etc.) It seems to me that it only makes good business sense to do this, and they are doing it. This makes it so much easier to find Y2K problems, and rule out devices with no problems (and yes, we are doing our own testing, too). 2) Most Y2K utility remediation is being driven the NRC, directly or indirectly. Nuke plants are effectively already being driven by the Nuclear Regulatory Commision (NRC) to address the Y2K problem. Their owner/operators are smart and are including their fossil plants in their company's Y2K plans. This ensures two things. 1) Most US Electric Utility base load plants have a Y2K plan in place, and 2) There is senior management sponsorship and involvement in the project. UTILITIES ARE GENERALLY GOOD AT SOLVING LARGE, WELL DEFINED, ENGINEERING PROBLEMS. Look at the current technical state of the electric grid and the reliability of the generation, transmission and distribution systems that supply power to your home. Maybe not the highest tech equipment (which is good when considering Y2K), but very high reliability. 3) Utilities have the money to pay for Y2K fixes. A newer nuke plant may have cost a couple billion to build. Yearly O&M and fuel budgets are hundreds of millions. Yeah, it may cost a million to fix a complex and badly non-compliant DCS or other computer system. Total Y2K budget (excluding payroll) may be 2-10 million (very rough numbers for now) for the entire Y2K problem at a nuke plant. But it won't break the bank. CLOSING - Anyone who accurately predicts "now" what will really happen "then" is just lucky. My only basis for these statements is my current Y2K work in the US electric utilities and talking to others at different utilities. My current prediction is no widespread power outages. The U.S. western states power grid suffered a geographically large power outage in August of 1996 for a couple of hours. Y2K will not cause a problem that large. My only fear in posting this is that some people may read this as think "Y2K? No problem!" I am not saying this. I have personally seen (not just heard of) too many Y2K problems to even think that. I just think enough of them will be solved to keep the power on in most places. I would particularly like to here the views of other Y2K utility workers. Fred Swirbul US Electric Utility Engineer - Y2K Readiness Team Standard disclaimer - I don't represent my employer ________ Subject: Y2K & Electric Utilities - Not Bad News Date: Sat, 28 Mar 1998 03:25:50 GMT From: Fred Swirbul Organization: Netcom Newsgroups: comp.software.year-2000