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To: FJB who wrote (1559)	3/25/1998 11:26:00 AM
From: David Aegis	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2946

Bob, Yes, I too am a bloody and bruised buy and hold type. I bought into this group for the first time in July of 1996, and made some selective additions to holdings in April of 1997 and September of 1997. Two out of three ain't bad. I didn't really buy into the DRAM scare of early October 1997, and I didn't even find much to worry about when Hong Kong's currency was attacked. Unfortunately, in late November the Koreans said, "Guess what, we lied about our foreign reserve holdings and we need an IMF bailout." All of a sudden the bears' doomsaying was validated, albeit in my opinion for a reason (Korea) that they did not foresee. Oh well, I still have solid profits in the group, and I am unwilling to sell at current prices. My original investment thesis was to hold at least through shift to .25 micron geometries and then see how the boom-bust cycle would impact decisions to move to 300mm wafers. My fear was that if the 1996 slowdown was a protracted one that the Japanese would have time to close the technological lead held by the U.S. equipment co's. My current view is that the Japanese have narrowed the technological lead in some areas, but that the U.S. companies are still well ahead in certain enabling technologies that will allow for more aggressive line shrinks and processes (e.g. .18 micron, copper). I think semiconductor manufacturers are holding off on equipment purchases now to see what additional technological innovations might develop before demand once again starts to outstrip current supply. They are probably trying to be too cute with this, and will find that the lead times to ramp capacity will result in shortages. The boom-bust cycle is, I'm afraid, just part of human nature. I have focused on companies that can provide enabling technologies (and I still believe Micrascan will be an enabling technology) as well as back end equipment suppliers that will stand to benefit from the increased unit volume of chips and the need for increased defect prevention/detection/correction that will result from the restart of the line shrink and 300mm wafer cycles. While there is a risk that the ugliness of upcoming EPS reporting cycle will shock the market into another downleg for the group, I am holding my positions in anticipation of the upside I expect leading into 1999. --David