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Non-Tech : Simula (SMU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Bowman who wrote (1028)	3/24/1998 10:49:00 PM
From: Noblesse Oblige	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1671

Paul has noted and asked: "Townsend's answers were vague. What does the thread make of this? I'm left thinking (hoping) that SMU is counting on much improved revenues on the 16G side late in the year, and that they are counting on a significant ramp up of ITS and ITTR with the announcement of new contracts though Delphi. They are afraid to make promises so are keeping their projections modest, but are counting on some big news later this year. What do you all think?" Well Paul, I do believe I sort of agree with you. Sixty to Seventy cents would be a "heroic" outcome, in my view, particularly since the first quarter should at best be breakeven, and the second quarter won't get the entire benefit from the San Diego plant consolidation. Having said that, for the next 3-4 months at least, the price of Simula stock will be more closely aligned with the probability or actual announcement of additional ITS orders. If we get one that includes shipments in the latter part of 1999, the stock will trade north of 20. If there are two, add another five points. Three or more? Good grief, I don't think I will be able to stand the prosperity. It appears to this writer that the company is counting on cleaning up its business operations to reach the better numbers. We will see if they can perform on schedule. Unfortunately, most investors aren't likely to give the management the benefit of the doubt following the last two quarters. SMU is now a "show me" stock. Have a good evening.

To: Paul Bowman who wrote (1028)	3/24/1998 11:05:00 PM
From: greentree	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1671

The analyst numbers I've seen for '98 are $.45 on $130mm. Have yet to see $.60-.70 and those numbers seem quite high. Where can I track them down? My thought is that they have $40mm in the bag in ongoing government products business. Add $24mm for ITS, $36MM for 16g and we are at $100mm. So that leaves us with $30mm total contribution from CABS, IBAHRS, Parachutes, 2nd ITS customer, rail and mass transit seating, and possibly BABS. Can they do it. Seems likely if these "new" revenue sources do modestly well in '98. Also, one has to wonder how strong Mercedes commitment to the curtain will be if a few more new companies use the ITS and the curtain is still not available. Their old excuse was that they didn't want to look like they were using BMW technology, but rather than being a BMW wannabe, Mercedes may just have to go with the flow. p.s.: I guessed a loss of $.10-$.15 for the quarter, and with the land sale removed (and figuring the tax impact of the land sale) we were at ($.15). Still, it seems as if the number was not an issue. The future looks bright, and the company seems well aware that the bottom line in 1998 is the bottom line! Your Friend, Kreskin