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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rick who wrote (294)	3/25/1998 11:05:00 AM
From: Tom Smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4509

Speaking of management quality, we now hear that Oracle Chairman Larry Ellison will be concentrating on applications now. Sounds like a company thrashing around to find a focus. Think the Oracle salespeople will be under much pressure to squeeze revenue into the current quarter? <G> Tom --------------------------------------------------------------------- Ellison Takes Over Oracle's Applications Group (03/25/98; 10:11 a.m. EST) By Shawn Willett, Computer Reseller News Oracle chairman Larry Ellison is taking over management of the Oracle Applications Group following two quarters of slower than expected growth, according to sources inside and close to the company. While senior vice president Ron Wall remains officially in charge of the group, sources said Ellison is now personally overseeing product development, marketing, and other functions in an effort to jump-start sales. "If you know your work is going to be seen by Larry, you're more apt to make sure it's perfect," said one Oracle employee, who asked not to be named. Oracle officials would not comment other than to say that Ellison was taking a more direct hand in managing the group. Ellison has his work cut out for him. In Oracle's last quarter, ended in February, sales were up 30 percent. While that is healthy, it was below internal targets. For the quarter ended in November, sales were up only 7 percent. Those growth rates were slower than Oracle's competitors in the client/server applications arena -- SAP America and Baan. Ellison has said the company hopes to someday overtake SAP in the applications arena. Ellison's personal interest in the applications group is a marked departure from his recent network computer crusade, which only indirectly affected sales of Oracle's core products.

To: Rick who wrote (294)	3/25/1998 11:42:00 AM
From: AlienTech	Respond to of 4509

>>Peoplesoft has a significant bucket of money on the balance sheet as "deferred revenues". << Lets see, SOLLY has 50% deferred revenues.. It was like 45 last week and this week... And if PSFT touches that defered anything, watchout for the life boats. Hey I like the company, even have friends workign there but give me a break, there's got to be a point where the value of a stock out weighs the dangers of owning it.

To: Rick who wrote (294)	3/25/1998 12:08:00 PM
From: Melissa McAuliffe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4509

I have several comments concerning some of the recent posts on this thread so this is not necessarily directed to Rick. First, with respect to deferred revenue.....My guess is that the majority of this deferred revenue represents maintenance revenues which have been paid but are recognized equally over the life of the maintenance agreement...one year in this case. This is not something that can be manipulated under any circumstances. I have said before that I wish we could get a breakout of what is in this deferred revenue number. But regardless I feel there is still enough revenue in this account for PSFT to manage earnings. As more and more customers are added this deferred revenue should grow proportionally as more customers become paying maintenance customers. With respect to missing a quarter....Part of managing earnings expectations is the setting of appropriate expectations with the analysts and investment community. I feel that if PSFT has control over their business(which it appears they do) and is conservative in their forward projections that the likelihood of a miss is negligble at this point. e.g. PSFT has set expectations for 1998 at a 50% growth rate which is significantly less than historical growth but still a very reasonable number. As companies grow to the size of PSFT it becomes more and more difficult to continue to grow at 70-80%. And I think most people accept and understand this. Look at SAP for example. You just reach a point where it is not doable and even if it is, it is a difficult number to manage. The bottom line....they set the right expectations, manage to those numbers, exceed those numbers by a respectable amount......we don't see a missed quarter. I believe you can always find a company that had many quarters of success and point to it as an example. I guess it comes down to the issue of how strongly you believe in the management of the company. ORCL is a good example. Look who's running the place!! Read the book "What's the Difference Between God and Larry Ellison" and you'll know what I mean. Now he's taking over the applications group. Give me a break! Personally I believe that PSFT's management has the ability to continue to pull off these successful quarters...at least into the foreseeable future. They seem to know what it takes. Melissa