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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Fred Fahmy who wrote (1417)	3/27/1998 2:49:00 AM
From: Johnathan C. Doe	Respond to of 5944

Fred, I'm in on this stock at the open tommorrow as long as it hasn't already popped. Even if it drops off a bit after it will pop back so it is just about as close to the bottom as I am willing to wait for. I will double down if I miscalculated as this is a quality company longterm.

To: Fred Fahmy who wrote (1417)	3/27/1998 7:01:00 AM
From: Starowl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5944

Fred: Waiting for the other shoe to drop? I think the stock is low in expectation there will be another earnings warning. Adaptec has not officially warned for this quarter. During a conference call after it purchased Symbios (for $775M or so) it noted in an "Oh, by the way" manner that "fiscal Q4 revenues in drive related products will be $10 million less than estimated in early January, and as a result Q4 earnings will be 'at the low end of the estimated range'." (Courtesy of Charlie Smith: exchange2000.com This hasn't come out anywhere else. There may be no warning but there's lots of time for one, as the official year-end financials aren't due until 30 April. Adaptec warned only 12 days before the official stats in Jan. As a small investor, I am not worried about more warnings. I think the stock is a great value right now. But if I were an institutional investor (institutions own over 80 percent of the stock), I might be waiting for that shoe. Other factors are questions about consolidating Symbios and the depletion of cash reserves to make that purchase, the recent purchase of technology from Analog for $35M, and perhaps some recent warnings by 3Com and Quantum. There are a bunch of so-called "investor" lawsuits filed against the company, but my personal view is these are without foundation and not really factors in the stock price. All of the above is already factored into the stock. My view is the Symbios purchase is a bold move that typifies the forward looking style of management. But unlike the institutions, I don't have to worry as much about other peoples' money in making my decisions. Starowl

To: Fred Fahmy who wrote (1417)	3/27/1998 10:28:00 AM
From: Xylophone	Respond to of 5944

Fred, I would like to try to do some pro forma's on the combined entity. I don't know what fiscal calendar Symbios is on. I'll use Adaptec's. If Adaptec does 254m in their Q4, that would put them at 1057b. If we add 600m to that we're at 1657b. with 114m shares outstanding that puts us at about $14.50 per share in revenues. I'm assuming no growth. Anybody any thoughts? Just working on revenues for the moment. Xylophone