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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Philosopher who wrote (1430)	3/27/1998 12:22:00 PM
From: The Philosopher	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5944

Rachel Havens called back promptly. They are comfortable with the lower end of the 4Q 98 estimates ($.26-.40). As to the FY 99 estimates she suggested that brokers did their homework when the FY98 figures were in, and suggested, without being specific about it, that I should not get too concerned about those estimates until full FY98 numbers were available and analyze. However, she did say that the 1st 2 quarters of the year, presumably including FY 99 starting April 1, were historically weak; Q1 was usually weak and Q2 all of Europe was on vacation, so we should not expect strong numbers until Q3 in any case. (By that time we should know more about the length of the computer industry slump and the Asia problem). I asked her about Symbios earnings and their projections for the merger, but she is prohibited from saying anything about it, and said she hasn't even seen the Symbios earnings figures herself. Sugggests we all Symbios directly.

To: The Philosopher who wrote (1430)	3/27/1998 12:25:00 PM
From: Tom M	Respond to of 5944

Chris, regarding analysts estimates, they may all be their best faith effort, but I doubt it. I've seen many an estimate high-balled or low-balled to get their clients in or out, then readjust the estimate closer to the consensus. I've seen Kurlak do this on Intel & dropped estimates when good earnings were announced which dropped the price, then flip flopped two days later with an upgrade and earnings increase. The out of range estimates are particularly of suspicious nature IMO. On another note, don't know how many here follow ADBE/Adobe, but they're getting the red carpet treatment for coming in about 50% off from same Q last year, not unlike ADPT's recent numbers when they cut ADPT in half. ADBE got an actual UPGRADE today by Alex Brown to help avert a panic, and the stock is trading at its recent highs of about 44 (excluding a freak runnup to 49 yesterday). Bad Asian impact, bad Mac sales, bad North American sales, 1/2 last year's earnings, and 1/2 last year's cash as they spent it on a buyback! ADPT truely had special treatment before Greenspan's boys probably made such treatment illegal due to its unnerving effect.<g> Have we seen a good crash since ADPT? Cabletron, 3COM, AULT, and now ADBE to name a few, have all since ignored or rewarded worse than anticipated earnings reports. I'm still amazed that the irony of this isn't picking this stock up a bit yet as oversold. regards, Tom