To: Chip McVickar who wrote (1726 ) 3/29/1998 9:10:00 PM From: Henry Volquardsen Respond to of 3335
Off Topic to Chip and CLK very interesting post again. Having traded currencies under various types of monetary regimes since the late 70s I have a perhaps more jaundiced view of currency backings. I believe hard, soft and flexible are all irrelevant. In the final analysis there is no such thing as a dependable backing to a currency as any government can and will abandon the currency regime when it it threatens their own agenda. Looking at a pile of assets held by a central bank, especially for the larger economies, is a distraction. The real backing for the US dollar is the productivity of the US economy, the dependability of our legal structure in protecting assets and the willingness and ability of US taxpayers to support the currency. This is the only real backing that ours or any currency really has. It is very instructive to watch the debate over the currency crisis in Asia. Steve Hanke, a man I have some respect for, has proposed a currency board for Indonesia. Under this system all Indonesian currency will be backed 1 for 1 with foreign currencies or gold, most likely the dollar. Hanke believes this will have a marvelous restorative effect. He bases his opinion on the benefits such a system have had for Hong Kong and Argentina. Many people have argued vociferously against a currency board for Indonesia. The arguments are not based on whether such a system is viable, most concede currency boards can work. The argument against a currency board fo Indonesia is based on the corruption of the Indonesian government and the liklihood it will be used to allow connected Indonesians to get assets out of the country. In other words, the backing of the currency is irrelevant. It is, in this case, the lack of dependability of the legal system trumps the backing. Henry