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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bearshark who wrote (15288)	3/27/1998 5:13:00 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 94695

Just saw the 3Bears on CNBC,Metz(Oppenheimer),Tice(Prudent Bear Fund) and another fellow--and the TICE fellow gave me a laugh with his fervent prophecies of castastrophic doom,he,with a sickening guru-like surety pronounced the market will soon,very soon start a vigorous and relentless downturn of such horrendous proportions that it will take 25 Years before you re-coup your losses.God it gets tiresome to hear these self-inflated prophets making these statements when fact is no one knows,and especially these guys,who have been so consistently and ridiculously wrong for so long that they their creditability is at best meager.max90

To: bearshark who wrote (15288)	3/27/1998 9:08:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 94695

Bearshark; My TA on the futures is it's increased activity of the "hedge" funds over the "momentum" players. Momentum players buy the futures, then buy the underlying issues, which in turn helps the bet they put on the futures. The Hedge players will sell futures , before they buy..which creates a straddle for them. And within that straddle they see a margin (( spread ) That they can exploit) They count on volitility..and help to create it. ----------------------- The reverse is true on the sell, or short side..momentum players selling futures then sell the stock or go short. Hedgers buy futures before selling or going short. ------------------------- So what it seems to tell me recently in as much as the market is flying back more in the face of the futures, is that there is more activity on the part of the hedge funds, or less activity on the part of the momentum players. Either one would cause what I've been seeing.. ---------------------------- And it does not matter so much which it is, it will or should give us an other message..hedge funds active, or momentum players pausing..adds up to a pull back signal, if not that then a pause -------------------------- This increased tug of war between the futures , and the stocks..is sort of an indication that a trend is about to change.. At least thats the TA I put on it.. ------------------------- In short I'm saying TA says we are at a top..or about to stall. While FA remains fairly good..credit card debt is now down, savings just had an increase in the "rate" of savings over the "rate" of spending by consumers. While the short term rate of oil is up, that's far from setteled..and could go either way, if OPEC gets to heavy handed they will shoot themselves in the foot..there are many more non OPEC producers than there were a few years ago. And it will hinder the recovery in ASIA, this is not a good time for the Arab nations to cut production..it's almost like holding a gun to ASIAs head, when they can't afford to pay bills let alone high oil. This will cause some big problems at this time more than than they might be bagaining for. It's no secret that they can now get it out of the ground for 2 or 3 dollars a barrel..look for a lot of resentments if they do this just to please a few fat cats. ------------------------------ At any rate it causes a lot of uncertainty..and the market will not be happy with that..while the FA is still good, high oil can cut into that..( the lag time is maybe 4 to 5 months ) before the FA goes to hell..but right now the TA indicates a change of direction..with the FA still strong enough it should not be any big disaster. -------------------------------- With a slight rush to gold..NOW, get in a little gold fund, NOW..don't mess around it may not last long. ------------------------- JIM