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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Judy who wrote (7437)3/27/1998 8:34:00 PM
From: Robert Graham  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 42787
 
I do see the technology of embedded systems playing an increasing role in the implementation of future products. I looked at the past history of WIND and found that even though the ballance sheet of the company is more like that of a very young startup type of company, this company has been around for several years. This company apparently did well initially and then ran into some problems in 1995, if not earlier. Wind River Systems has shown an improving earnings picture since them. So I see a buildup of booked earnings over the past few years except I think this overstates the improving financial health of the company. They now have a very large float compared with their assets and current revenue. This is probable one reason they could not float stock for their recent infusion of new capital. A second look at the balance sheet indicates to me that one reason their A/R is high is due to revenue that has been booked as "deferred revenue" which apparently has doubled since the previous year. I wonder where this came from and the what the likelihood is of this "deferred" revenue turning into real revenue in the near future? But as long as they can manage their cashflow and continue generating business with key customers like INTC and CSCO, then I agree that this company can end up to continue to generate growth in earnings. But the question is how timely will the growth in earnings be? After all, unless you are going to invest in this stock instead of trade it for short term profits, it would be nice to see earnings results in the near future. Perhaps you think that the institutions will acumulate this stock and this is what you are looking for apart from an improving short term earnings picture?

Based on my current understanding of prints on the tape, I am still wondering about those large block transactions that showed up as taking place at a mark down fromt he current bid and ask. I think that if a block transaction has been crossed, then depending on the current demand for the stock, it can sell at a prearranged price that ends up at a discount fromt he current quote on the stock. If it is a block that has been handled by a market maker for their customer, then the markdown was a sale motivated transaction which the MM is pricing in relationship to a discount from the bid. The initial very large blocks were probably crossed. Together the very large blocks represented close to half of the volume that was traded today. Some blocks were on the order of 100,000 and 300,000 shares. Perhaps the price they transacted at in relation to the current bid and ask may not have been entirely indicative of the increasing demand for the stock considering their size in relation to the day's total volume. Still, from what I know and have seen so far, I am reluctant to place great weight on today's large block transaction as far as relating it to the upward price improvement in the stock. More data is needed. I will look at the T&S for earlier this week to see if I can see a pattern. Also, next week should provide additional insight. I would like to see with this stock more frequent smaller block trades along with the larger block transactions before I am convinced that this stock is on its way up. The overhead supply should prove to be a good test for demand.

Bob Graham