Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Satyr who wrote (23576)	3/28/1998 10:39:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

Satyr; It's hard to say what will happen short term, I think she showed her support level real good. Dec trading at 44 before but There are a lot of people who bought DEC just after the deal..up to 62 and she stayed above 60 a good while..millons of shares sold up there base on CPQ being about 32..as it is they get hurt real bad if CPQ don't get back up to 32. So it may not matter about earnings or inventory. There is about 40 to 50M shares of DEC that need CPQ at 31 or 32 just to break even. Also you got a lot of old money in CPQ that needs that 31 or 32. Will they gather up some resorces and buy her up to there, I think so..I don't think the shorts can stop it. It could take a few months..and they may want to see if CPQ drops back any before buying more..but with the money already invested at that level..and above forget the creative book keeping if the deal goes there will be a lot of presure from old money to push the stock back up, at least to the 31-32 level..it won't help the NAV of some of the funds in this and DEC to let her sit here..while they may take their time.. hopeing to get some more around the 24 - 25 level they have motivation to eventully momentum buy her on up. From that point who knows..the big name companies generally recover good after a big hit..maybe take a bit..just look at ORCL..up 65% since it's hit..now you know things have not improved that much at ORCL..T has over doubled since it's hit..it could take time, but not forever. She will likley take out her old highs if not this year , then in 99 for sure. The funds got to much in her not to push her back up. Jim PS No one has done more ceative book keeping than AOL..and look were she is..not even the insiders believed she would go that high..sometimes the FA don't make or mean frazz in this crazy market..if it did then the DOW would be closer to 6000 than 9000. :-)

To: Satyr who wrote (23576)	3/29/1998 7:21:00 PM
From: cybermonkey	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 97611

I'm new to this thread. Trying the 30 day deal. But I've been watching what has been said here for a long time, since about post 7000. I think this recent downturn in the stock is just a normal cyclical event in the electronics industry. The first quarter is always slow and about the first half of the second. This quarter was just amplified by the Asian woes. True Compaq missed the numbers and overbuilt, but they're a smart company and will handle the situation. Compaq has also been misquoted about the first quarter earnings. Many people are saying a "break even" quarter, in my understanding that means no profit, no loss. What Compaq has said was they will have a 'FLAT' quarter, a profit in line with 1st quarter 1997. Which was a $387 million profit. Still not bad. Compaq is also looking ahead to the third and fourth quarters, when the back to school and holiday sales really heat up. They surely must have their new product lines ready to hit the production floor. They will not be left out of these hot sales opportunities because of their current inventory woes. In my opinion, when the quiet period is over with the Digital deal, Compaq will be able to open up to the press and to shareholders and assure them of what their plans are. This should all come to a head around late May or the first of June, when new products start to hit the shelves, and sales start stepping up. IMO you should see Compaq share price back to mid-30's by the time second quarter results are posted in July. That will be because Compaq is able to begin talking more open, and will have their inventory problem behind them and assure that they are track again. I own many shares of CPQ, and believe in their future. I do get a sick feeling when I see a $10/share loss, but I know that will turn around. It always has with this company. Looking for $250/share in 5 years. Go long on CPQ.