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Technology Stocks : NEXTEL -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kevin F. Spalding who wrote (5347)	3/30/1998 10:37:00 AM
From: Arnie Doolittle	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 10227

Kevin, NXTL was conspicuous by its absence from the IBD article. For those who didn't see the article, here's some interesting points with my comments: 1. Estimates are that PCS will increase from 1997's 2 million to 40 million in 2002. (NXTL's 1.3 million is 2/3 of the ENTIRE PCS customer base. Hmmm, something to think about.) 2. AirTouch added 900,000 customers in 1997, apparently most were analog. Sprint has 1 million PCS customers. (So how much higher are Sprint's marketing costs per customer add than NXTL's? Given their high visibility, I suspect that Sprint is spending twice as much per add as NXTL. Maybe more. Is that saying something about the relative utility of NXTL's iDEN vs. Sprint's cdma digital? Or is NXTL's lead in installing a national network the reason?) 3. Estimates say that from 36% to 45% of cell phone users will be PCS by 2002, up from 5% in 1997. (I think that, as customers migrate from analog to digital, NXTL will get more than its share of the high end.) 4. 1/3 of new wireless users are PCS. (And what % are NXTL's iDEN? Hmmm?) 5. PCS arpu's range from $52 to $62, not the $45 industry average that we've often cited on this board. 6. Aerial Comm. has an arpu of $70. (NXTL's arpu is competitive with the digital industry and can be expected to remain at these levels. As prices "drop", arpu won't but more services will be offered for approximately the same arpu.) 7. PCS-analog dual phones will soon be out. This is the one downside that NXTL will have to face as duality gives the PCS companies immediate access to the wider and deeper coverage of analog. Thus, coverage will be better in the short term for PCS vs. NXTL. How well the dual phones work remains to be seen. And, of course, existing customers would have to buy new phones (at least I assume that is true.) The bottom line is that the wireless biz is in the midst of explosive growth and NXTL will get its market share and more as we go forward from here. WHEN ARE THE MEDIA DUNDERHEADS GOING TO RECOGNIZE WHAT'S OBVIOUS TO US? NAMELY, THAT NXTL IS A DIGITAL WIRELESS PLAYER THE EQUAL OF PCS AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED WHEN DISCUSSING GROWTH OF THE INDUSTRY. For now NXTL seems satisfied to remain relatively quiet in the hope of continuing to sneak up on the competition. Trust me when I say that the PCS companies KNOW that NXTL is a player in their arena. When the media types FINALLY figure that out, the stock will soar. Arnie