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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Pancho Villa who wrote (5745)3/30/1998 2:56:00 PM
From: craig crawford  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 18691
 
What does Rolls Royce have to do with AOL or YHOO?



To: Pancho Villa who wrote (5745)3/30/1998 4:07:00 PM
From: Funda  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 18691
 
Where the Yahoo valuation is coming from

Where does the valuation of Yahoo come from? Take a look at the ISDEX archives available on quote.yahoo.com . They have a valuation model based on the number of unique users visiting these web sites and have made a reasonable estimate about the amount of money that companies advertising on Yahoo might want to spend. It doesn't look that crazy. This is a new business and is just ramping up - so traditional measures of growth will fail to tell the real story (assuming there is one). I wouldn't feel comfortable buying Yahoo at these levels, but I wouldn't feel comfortable shorting it either.

I think it is instructive to study the rise and fall of Netscape. NSCP also climbed to astronomical heights and it has taken almost 2 years and major competition from Microsoft to bring their stock price down to a more reasonable level.

The same will probably hold for Yahoo. It will take a long time and significant problems for the stock to come back down to earth. And unlike Netscape, Yahoo doesn't have Microsoft or anybody else breathing down its neck.

If you are short Yahoo, I wish you good health.

Funda