Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Alternative Fuel Systems ATF:VSE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ally who wrote (561)	3/31/1998 1:04:00 AM
From: Campbell Cu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4605

Hi Denise. Let me try these figures. Let's say that only 50 % of the projected 10,000/yr from the Mexico deal comes about for the next couple of years. The average price of these units are more like $1800, this would yield annual revenues of 9,000,000. Canaccord says 15X sales are too lofty, so let's give it a 50 % discount and go with 7.5X sales. This would give us a market cap of 7.5 x 9 mil for $67.5 mkt cap or a share price of $2.70/share. This is assuming there are no other sources of revenues coming from anywhere. Remember, the fueling stations being built in Mexico City at this time is capable of fueling 1600 vehicles / day for each station. These would be the first two of 100 projected refueling stations for Mexico alone. The infrastructure of refueling stations would be the key to massive conversions. We have not accounted for all the other geographic regions of the world that AFS has been working on and soon to be firmed up. ECOS, AFS'partner in Japan, is building 2,000 natural gas refueling stations by the year 2000. What about Europe? Are we ahead of ourselves, or should we wait for the market to show us the way.

To: Ally who wrote (561)	3/31/1998 2:51:00 AM
From: Tom Jordan	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 4605

Hello Denise! AFS is an excellent buy-hold candidate. It is also an excellent candidate for short term trading. The choice is yours. There is no doubt that ATF will be a rollercoaster for a while, but I can't see it fizzling down to $.72 and staying there. (jmho) Gasoline/ng systems have been available for more than a decade worldwide. The newcomer to the scene is the perfected diesel/ng system. AFS and Clean Air Partners are among the leaders in the world in this tech; remember that the Eagle is the only system approved by the Japan MOT and also compliant with the 2004 legislation in the US (as per post #507). It was Westport that originally got tagged as the 'baby Ballard'. Unfortunately, AFS got caught up in the cyclone. Unlike Ballard and Westport, Alternative Fuel Systems is generating revenue today, with a more reasonable stock price, not struggling to support a market cap based on earnings 5-15 years from now. The $2 mil contract in Mexico should be fulfilled by late Sept 98, at which point the monies will be paid in full to AFS, so cash reserves will increase. The letter of intent will then be acted upon in some capacity. Another financing in the meantime is possible as it costs lots of bucks to sell anything worldwide. re: "the mathematics of the letter of intent seem a little optimistic" Remember also that Hydro Quebec and Gaz de France are the other half of the AFS 'tag team'. They are putting up the bucks for the refueling stations. Selling the energy is their end of the deal, and they will want lots of ng vehicles around, about 10,000/year(give or take <g>). Providing the initial $2 mil contract is fulfilled to each party's satisfaction, the next phase is fully anticipated by the Mexicans. We have all heard it so many times it seems to be wearing off. The worldwide market for cleaning up vehicle emissions is massive! If anything the letter of intent is conservative in numbers. It would appear that we have been numbed by 'green' products that came and went. AFS is not a cheap marketing ploy attempting to capitalize on the green revolution. Laws are being passed to reduce emissions worldwide. There is lots of competition in the world, but I believe there is no other co that is responding to the demand with half the success and market penetration of AFS in the diesel retrofit market. For a small Canadian co on a shoestring budget, ATF has managed to poise itself to pounce on the problem of toxic vehicle emissions in every respect. They have the technology from tank to engine to tailpipe. I think the stock is a steal at present values. Smiling and riding out the bumps, regards, tj

To: Ally who wrote (561)	3/31/1998 6:42:00 AM
From: Mark Bartlett	Respond to of 4605

Denise, You have uncovered nothing that those who did their DD did not already know. << If it takes months to install 1,080 Sparrow units, how do you get to install 10,000 units per year???>> When their partner is in full gear they will be able to convert 400 PER SHIFT .... i.e., 8 hours. (according to their company literature) <<Question: has the stock price gone way ahead of its fundamentals? All comments are welcome.>> With the average S&P trading at a PE of 27 .... does not seem too bad. Denise, this is a junior company that has a lot of promise ... a certain amount of the stock price reflects its speculative nature. If it gets the full Mexican contract, it will soar ... as it will with any other large contract. BTW ... as far as revenues are concerned, it is unusual for juniors at this stage to have any ... for them to have some is a bonus. If you are going to apply the same measuring stick to the juniors as you do the seniors, you will invariably be disappointed. <<and gave a similar impression of certainty that AFS has a contract worth $180 million in revenue over 10 years >> Do not agree .... the articles never stated that they had finalized the 180 million dollar contract ... the most optimistic was the Bloomberg piece wherein it said they were "very,very close to finalizing the deal." Personally, I did not like that statement because it was too promotional and forward looking - but according to the company, they were misquoted and that was the reason for the clarification the next day. Is it the truth? ... I do not know ... personally I suspect they said it, but did not expect to be quoted. _If that is the case, that was a stupid oversight on their part. In any event, the ride on ATF is going to be volatile with all sorts of half-truth and innuendos .... not for the weak-hearted. Any stock that has risen like this one is going to attract the shorters .... and they will be able to tell you everything that is wrong with the company ... that's what makes the market. Good luck, MB

To: Ally who wrote (561)	3/31/1998 9:48:00 AM
From: bc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4605

Hi All: I don't believe yesterday's news release was posted. Canada NewsWire Attention Business Editors: MEXICO CITY PROJECT: UPDATE - ALTERNATIVE FUEL SYSTEMS INC. REPORTS MICROBUS CONVERSION PROJECT IN MEXICO CITY PROCEEDING ON SCHEDULE CALGARY, March 30 /CNW/ - Alternative Fuel Systems (AFS) is proceeding on schedule to fulfill its contract regarding the manufacture of the AFS patented Sparrow fuel conversion kits for Phase I of a project in Mexico City converting gasoline powered microbus engines to compressed natural gas (CNG)operation. Initial cash payments outlined by the agreement have been received by AFS. Letters of credit ensure the remainder will be paid when the product is delivered. AFS is the exclusive supplier of 1,000 conversion kits in the $2,000,000 contract. The conversion kits are being manufactured in Calgary. The AFS proprietary technology was chosen following a global competition due to its economy, performance, and ability to significantly reduce exhaust emissions. Contracts formalizing Phase I of the agreement were signed December 17th,in Toluca, capital city of the State of Mexico. Governor Cesar Camacho Quiroz signed the document on behalf of the State of Mexico along with other government officials. Project partners include The KRAUS GROUP, Convertidores Cataliticos Mexicanos SA de CV of Mexico City (CCM), CEM, Pan AmericanEnterprises, MEG International (Hydro Quebec, Gaz de France), and an association representing Microbus owners. The KRAUSE GROUP, of Winnipeg, Manitoba, is now manufacturing compressors for the first two of a projected 100 refuelling stations. The two initial compressor stations are strategically located and each are capable of servicing 1,600 buses per day when fully operational. Construction of the first site is on schedule for completion by June, 1998. When Phase I is completed, a letter of intent signed between AFS and CCM in January will be formalized as a contract to launch Phase II. A minimum of 10,000 microbuses and other vehicles per year will be converted to CNG operation over a 10 year period. The Mexico City project, along with an Innovative Reverse Flow Catalytic Converter introduced at the SAE Congress in Detroit, Michigan, in February, combined with a recent agreement taking AFS Dual Fuel Technology into the UK/Europe firmly positions the company on the cutting edge of the fight to reduce engine emissions. AFS proprietary technology provides immediate solutions to pollution problems. AFS is listed on the Vancouver Stock Exchange, trading symbol ATF.V. The Vancouver Stock Exchange has not reviewed and does not accept responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this News Release. SEDAR: 00003847E -30- For further information: Gerry Klopp, President, Alternative Fuel Systems Inc., (403) 262-1833, Fax: (403) 237-7441 ALTERNATIVE FUEL SYSTEMS INC. has 14 releases in this database. General Inquiries cnw@newswire.ca Technical Issues webmaster@newswire.ca

To: Ally who wrote (561)	3/31/1998 12:02:00 PM
From: bc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4605

Hi Denise: <The FP article seems to get its source mainly from Laurel's article, and gave a similar impression of certainty that AFS has a contract worth $180 million inrevenue over 10 years to install Mexican microbuses with the Sparrow units.> I would venture to believe that the FP would do its own homework and would have contacted the company. If you believe otherwise you might want to call the editor and confirm. There is a letter of intent signed between AFS and CCM to be formalized as a contract to Launch Phase ll when Phase 1 is completed in the near future. In view of the project partners and the overall commitments here I would say it will be a GO. I don't believe that I will be eating my words. In closing it is very important to do your own due diligence and have a strong comfort and confidence level in management and the company's fundamentals. If not it's best to move on. Regards, Bonnie