Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: uu who wrote (8698)	3/31/1998 3:35:00 AM
From: Kal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

I couldn't have said it any better myself. Thank you Addi.

To: uu who wrote (8698)	3/31/1998 7:05:00 AM
From: Robert DeHaven	Respond to of 64865

You said: "Sun will be going through a period of decline in earnings for the next quarter or so. This will however be followed by a stronger than ever company." This seems to be at odds with what the company has said..... I expect SUNW to be THE major new leader in techs.....no earnings warnings here. good luck, bob

To: uu who wrote (8698)	3/31/1998 7:52:00 AM
From: BrickHouse	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

Howdy All, I have been a long term sunw holder and a lurker on this thread for quite some time. I had a great run on sunw recently buying stock (and 99, 00 leaps) late last year and holding through the past rally to 49. I do believe that a correction will occur. I was in agreement with Addi in most of his recent posts, and I believe in the correction now more than ever for the following reasons: 1) Earnings may fall short for most technology stocks. I have read the rumors here and on the yahoo thread that sunw may be scrambling to meet its numbers. 2) Perception can change overnight. No one will ignore poor earnings if the Fedral Reserve cautions now or in april. No one has ever seemed to forgive SUNW (even when they meet expectations). 3) Sunw has incredible volatility if measured percentage wise. It seems to bounce plus and minus 50% yearly. It may work to buy and hold this stock but greater gains seem to be attainable if you catch a break on one of the nutty perception bounces (which we seem to be enduring presently). All of this said, I love the technology, and I believe in the future of this company. - Just another Opinion to Ignore

To: uu who wrote (8698)	3/31/1998 12:52:00 PM
From: Alok Sinha	Respond to of 64865

As always, your response is well articulated, and I would agree with most of the points you made. My thoughts on where the market may be headed and how some individual stocks will perform over the short and intermediate term (In the long run, we are all dead, as Keynes once said) I think volatility is here to stay, and we have not seen the last of the kinds of up and down moves that occured between Oct and Feb. The volatility is directly a function of information being disseminated very rapidly (sounds counter intuitive, dosen't it) and institutional investors trying to stay ahead of the game. Earnings fears which caused the sharp declines in high techs will be realized (problems in S Asia are not imaginary, although it may seem that way based on how the market is shrugging it off); however the impact on most firms with exposures in that region will be slow and prolonged, mitigating the likelihood of sharp drops, but it will be a drag for the next 4 - 6 quarters. Credit is extremely hard to come by in those regions, and the necesary capital investments needed to support the high growth rates of the past will NOT be made in the near future. Large multinational banks are being bailed out by the IMF (to maintain investor confidence), but industrial firms are not getting much out of these reform packages. So your hypothesis that earnings for US firms in general will be impacted, in my opinion, will be realized. The kinds of shortfalls that the large stock declines of last year were implying was (as most of us predicted) an over-reaction. Strong US and Europe growth should offset the earnings declines from Asis for well diversified firms. Howver, I wouldn't consider the semi-equipment manufacturers as well diversified due to which they are bearing the brunt of the slowdown. AMAT is an excellent compnay, and I hold some shares ( which I bought in the low 30s). Objectively, it is the high market valuations (and aggressive bargain hunting by small investors) that is keeping the stock from trading in the low to high 20s where it should based on fundamentals With a long term horizon, I would be a buyer again in the low 30s again. I recently bought some INTC at 75 (at my wife's insistence), but do not feel very confortable holding it at these levels. You are right, what provides at floor for these premium names are supposedly bargain hunters. The weak performance of INTC in such a strong market does not bode well for the semi- stocks in general SUNW is a different story for me. It would be an understatement if I did not admit that its recent performance has not been disappointing. However, none of the reasons (fundamentals /strategy /execution) that I invested in the Co. has changed. So it does not meet my criteria for selling the stock. The stock does have very poor market perception (exacerbated by the top managment's continuous MSFT bashing - justified may be, but certainly not smart from the Street's standpoint) but they have great products and strategy and dominate the market segments it competes in (you have yourself outlined the fundamentals of the company very well in the past, so there is no point preaching to you). Sooner or later valuations are bound to catch up, with some hiccups along the way, I may add. Mid 30s, a distinct possibility, not impossible. Ironically, my puts on SUNW have made me a lot more money recently than the stock iteself. So to some extent I have my bets hedged. For this quarter, I think 60 cents is achievable since the expenses are back end loaded and there is some flexibility to manage it down. I wouldn't sweat it out if they missed by a penny or two (based on the EPS revisions). Regards Alok

To: uu who wrote (8698)	3/31/1998 12:53:00 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Respond to of 64865

>>>It is not a matter of moving in and out of stocks. Trying to time the market is very foolish. However I call this as simple profit taking when one moves out of a stock (or stocks) based on what seems so obvious to him/her (in his/her humble opinion of course) that will cause an eventual decline in valuations in the short term. Addi, Your argument is too convoluted for me to follow. FACT: You predicted a near term drop in the price of sunw which drove you to take a profit with the intent of buying back in at a lower cost. Since the fundamentals of Sun were not at issue, but rather the market conditions surrounding it, you timed it! And were successful! If you try to do this on an ongoing basis, you would be fairly called a Market Timer. As it is, you are a long term Sun investor who played a (well informed) hunch :-), and saved his fellow thread members some hard won profits. Don't sweat the nomenclature, Addi; Timer or not, if you continue to call the shots correctly, they'll build a statue of you on SI. Frank