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Strategies & Market Trends : Stochastics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wayners who wrote (411)	3/31/1998 5:41:00 PM
From: AugustWest	Respond to of 927

Thanks for CYCH Wayne. August.

To: Wayners who wrote (411)	3/31/1998 9:17:00 PM
From: Jason Loren Bauer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 927

Wayne, I have just read through most of the thread, and the first thing I would like to do is commend you on your patience in responding to all of the inquiries. I don't know if I could make the time to field so many questions. I have been using stochastics and RSI over the past month and have done very well. I mainly buy the tech stocks, for their volitility, and sell them after a few days (sometimes that same day) for a quick profit. I primarily trade stocks in the 20-40 range buying between 500-1000 shares. Currently I'm using www.iqc.com for my charts. I look for stocks where the stochastics are under 20 and the %K is moving through the %D line also I like these same stocks to have an RSI between 20-35. My question to you is : you repeat several times, "don't fight the trend". How can I determine what the trend is? Also, is it possible that using the methods I have thus far (which have been very successful), that I bought against the trend but because of my willingness to take profits early, I was still successful. In better terms, do you still get a small pop in share price despite the trend if stochastics and RSI are screaming "oversold". Here are the companies I have traded if you need to know to answer question above: (all were profits) - I've only had a couple small losses since undertaking this technique. - SMOD, KLIC - took a small loss after both were affected by Jabil Circuits reporting poor earnings. CTXS 3/9- 3/11 TKLC 3/11 - 3/16 RMDY 3/16 - 3/19 ESV 3/20 - 3/23 - OPEC helped big time CPQ 3/23 - 3/24 JBIL 3/27 - 3/31 LEVL - SVGI Was wondering your opinion on LEVL - which just split today - has stochastics in teens and fast should have passed the slow today. Also on SVGI...stochastics are very low but K just passed the D line today also. Good RSI...(I know the RSI is an oscillator also but I still like to look at it)

To: Wayners who wrote (411)	4/1/1998 2:08:00 PM
From: Jason Loren Bauer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 927

quick question, I saw SEEK mentioned and then you ran it through your software. the software said sell short or downward break - which is what it has been doing lately - falling share price. Today SEEK is up almost 2 points...after today the stochastics should show a buy signal as the fast line will break the slow line. is this correct?? Whoever called SEEK and invested in it, congrats.

To: Wayners who wrote (411)	4/1/1998 5:28:00 PM
From: Wayners	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 927

Analysis at close on 4/01/98. Updated AMAT through XCIT. All commentary is at the time of the last signal received except for some of the notes I've inserted. Another trick I use on exits using stochastics when a stock is trending is to use different stochastics levels as the sell signal level. In a really strong uptrend it takes a much bigger drop in stochastics to put an end to the trend while in a neutral trend, it doesn't take much of a drop in stochastics to signal the end of the ride. To do this you have to use the bollinger bands on stochastics. In a neutral or slight trend, the exit signal is a cross down below the upper middle line. On a moderate uptrend use a cross down below the middle line as the exit. And on a really strong trend, use a a cross below the lower middle line or the bottom line as the exit signal. This method will keep you in trades longer, especially on those stocks that seem to trend upwards for long periods of time. Did everybody know that if you took $1 and doubled it every day for 30 days such that you have $2 on day 2, $4 on day 3, $8 on day 4 etc. you would have over a billion dollars on day 30? NASDAQ Last signal buy on 1 Apr. Slight uptrend and the volatility is increasing to the upside. ADPT Last signal sell short on 26 Mar. (1 Apr I think I'd buy to cover here in advance of the signal. Covering at the $20 support level would have been the smartest idea.) AMAT Last signal sell on 30 Mar. The trend is still up, but with this one I don't take chances. AMD Last signal buy on 27 Mar. Showing an uptrend. Volatility is low and can really increase a lot. I think AMD is a good one at least through earnings on 7 Apr. (31 Mar. note--this one continued to pay off big today. Getting close to a profit taking sell. Very high volatility--a must for profit taking.) (1 Apr--this is going to end in a countertrend drop for sure. Still have not gotten the sell signal.) AMGN Last signal sell on 16 Mar. (31 Mar note--Getting closer to a buy signal on very strong uptrend. Good up day today.) AMZN Last signal buy on 30 Mar. I'm expecting a significant break upwards and increase in volatility. Volatility is very very low right now. AOL Last signal buy on 23 Mar. Good solid uptrend still. ARX Last signal buy on 1 Apr. Neutral trend and decreased volatility. Not enough profit potential for me. ASA Last signal sell on 31 Mar. Still on a good uptrend. Can write the $22.50 May calls instead. Volatility is peaked. ASND Last signal sell on 31 Mar. Trend is up slightly. Can write calls instead of selling outright.. AVM Last signal buy on 30 Mar. Narrow bands and really low volatility. Still a bias for an upside break. Nice whipsawing effect. An upside break goes to $15. A downside break goes to $12. AVNT Last signal sell on 1 Apr. Real good uptrend so may want to see more of move downward in stochastics before selling. BBIOY Last signal buy to cover on 31 Mar. In a downtrend and volatility is very low--narrow bollinger bands--time to get whipsawed before it picks its breakout direction. BMY Last signal buy on 20 Mar. Good solid uptrend and increasing volatility. (31 Mar note--its recovering now, but the trend is slightly down. Looking for next stochastic peak to bail out of it.) BNYN Last signal sell on 30 Mar. Still in an uptrend but looks like a good place to pick up profits for a less risky play. Volatility is very, very high--which means a good chance for a countertrend drop in price. (31 Mar. note--its dropping alright.) CADE Last signal sell on 31 Mar. Still showing an uptrend. Very high peaked volatility--Countertrend drop is likely. Take profits. CBIZ Last signal buy on 31 Mar. Still in a good uptrend. High current volatility and staying that way. CDRD Last signal buy on 1 Apr. Made a big move today so I'd look for a dip to make an entry intraday. CEXP Last signal buy on 24 Mar. Neutral trend upside potential to $10.50. CFON Last signal sell short on 27 Mar--can't do under $5.00. Can look at puts. Still on a solid downtrend. CIEN Last signal sell on 18 Mar. Stochastics peaked today and give a sell signal. It was up against the resistance at $50 anyways. Did a real nice run from $45 to $48 using the signals. Look for next buy in opportunity--because of the uptrend or sell the $50 calls for Apr. (31 Mar. note--never got the buy signal--that's a good thing.) CKFR Last signal buy on 26 Mar. There was that long awaited signal. The uptrend is still intact. Remember there is still resistance at $24 to $25. (1 Apr note-- Real nice day. Did everybody notice how it held the support exactly at $21.25 as I had posted? Kept everybody in the trade through today's big move.) CLST Last signal sell on 30 Mar. The trend is neutral so I'm thinking short play. The uptrend has completely run out of gas. The volatility is low too and is set to increase--most likely to the downside. COMS Last signal sell or sell short on 27 Mar. Neutral trend. Cover at bottom bollinger band--$32.50) CORR Last signal buy to cover on 31 Mar. Trend is slightly down. CORX Last signal sell on 26 Mar. Can't short under $5. Consider $5 puts if they are available. Support at $1 9/16. (neutral trend and decent volatility). CPQ Last signal sell on 30 Mar. The trend is slightly up which is positive. I think you can buy back in at a lower price however. CTXS Last signal sell on 27 Mar. Real good uptrend though. I think I would ignore the signal.. CYBR Last signal buy to cover on 30 Mar. The trend is down. CYCH Last signal buy on 27 Mar. The trend is neutral on low volatility. The bands are getting narrower. Bias for an upward break for now. CYMI Last signal buy on 1 Apr. Finally a breakout. Everybody jump on board long. CYPB Last signal sell on 31 Mar. Very narrow bands and low volatility. Bias for a good downward break. DELL Last signal sell on 31 Mar. Still in an uptrend. DIMD Last signal buy on 26 Mar. Anticipating the buy signal yesteerday would have paid off today--real good move today. (31 Mar. note--price is holding up okay. I'd stick with it for now.) DSYS Last signal buy or buy to cover on 26 Mar. Neutral trend but good volatility. Upside resistance at $8 1/4. (1 Apr note--Its looking really weak on stochastics. A good short now.) DWRX Last signal buy on 27 Mar. This has been in a long consoldiation period. Now we're looking for an upward break. (1 Apr note--I think its a sell here in advance of any signals. Neutral trend.) EFII Last signal buy on 26 Mar. (30 Mar. note--now in a slight downtrend making long positions riskier.) FONR Last signal sell short on 23 Mar. Only problem is its under $5.00 and is not marginable. No play. GDT Last signal sell short on 27 Mar. The trend is down. (31 Mar. note--very unusal price move up today. I'd stick with the short for now. Pick an exit to buy to cover just past $75.) GERN Last signal sell short on 31 Mar. Ride back down again to the lower bollinger band. You can make a career off of this one. HD Last signal buy or buy to cover on 26 Mar. HRSH Last signal sell or sell short on 25 Mar. More getting whipsawed. The volatility is so low and the bands are so narrow I have no idea which way this thing will break for sure, but now I'd give it a downside bias. IDTC Last signal sell on 30 Mar. The trend is still up and it was an upday from the open. I think I'd ignore the sell signal until I see what it does tomorrow. . IHS Last signal buy on 23 Mar. Good uptrend as it goes to a higher level. IIT Last signal sell on 26 Mar. I think I'd ignore the sell signal. Good uptrend and volatility picking up to the upside. IOM Last signal buy to cover on 30 Mar. Still in a downtrend. Probably forming a base at an important support level--the old $14 level. IRIDF Last signal sell on 26 Mar. (26 Mar note--I had this one as my weekly pick for the game on the APM thread. Picked up 14% for the week. I closed the long positon at the close today.--30 Mar. note this stock won me the game for the week. 31 Mar. note-if you haven't sold already do it now.) JLG Last signal buy on 1 Apr. Decent uptrend still. KLIC Last signal buy to cover on 25 Mar. Still in a downtrend. LCCI Last signal buy on 31 Mar. Good uptrend. Volatility can increase from here. LSI Last signal sell on 26 Mar. Looks like the beginning of a trend so I think I'd ignore the sell signal. LTBG Last signal buy on 24 Mar. Good solid uptrend. (31 Mar note--close to a sell signal.) LTXX Last signal sell short on 31 Mar. Slight downtrend. MAIN Last signal buy to cover on 1 Apr. On a slight downtrend. MEDA Last signal sell on 23 Mar. Support at $10.50. MIND Last signal buy to cover on 1 Apr. MPDI Last signal sell on 19 Mar. Its right at the $7 resistance level too. (31 Mar. note --This stock is a reminder that in a solid uptrend, it takes a bigger hook for a true sell signal. A good sell signal on this one would be a cross of the middle band on stochastics which has not happened yet. That would have kept us in for more of the trend.) MSFT Last signal buy on 1 Apr. Still strong uptrend. MUEI Last signal sell short on 23 Mar. Good downtrend and peak in stochastics. A break below $11.25 goes to $10. NORT Last signal sell on 26 Mar. Time to take profits. NSCP Last signal buy or buy to cover on 25 Mar. Its been forming a base. Not a solid breakout yet. NTBK Last signal buy on 31 Mar. In a very strong uptrend. ORCL Last signal sell on 27 Mar. Still a good uptrend. OXHP Last signal buy to cover on 23 Mar. PNDA Last signal sell short on 30 Mar. IN a downtrend and can't short under $5.00. Can look into $5 in the money puts though. They'll move dollar for dollar with the stock price. PRMS Last signal buy on 27 Mar. Real good uptrend and very high volatility. Not for the faint of heart. Resistance at $30 from the current $27.50. (30 Mar. note, I bought the Apr 25 calls today in the money for $3 1/8. They've already moved up to $3 1/2 by $3 7/8.) PSIX Last signal sell on 30 Mar. Still a solid uptrend, but time to take profits or write calls. QCOM Last signal buy on 25 Mar. Looks like its completed its base forming. Jump on long. (31 Mar. note--this one is doing great.) QWST Last signal buy on 27 Mar. Slight uptrend. REMC Last signal buy on 24 Mar. Very slight uptrend. Not much of a break up. The volatility is really low and the bands are really narrow. RIG Last signal sell on 26 Mar. (1 Apr note--I'll call today's action a buy signal. Its imminent officially anyways.) RMBS Last signal buy to cover on 31 Mar. See what an upgrade will suddenly do? Very strange. SEEK Last signal sell short on 31 Mar. Narrow band and low volatiliy and a slight downtrend. Definite bias for a downward break. (1 Apr note--forget the short. Should have been stopped out early today. Today's action is what can happen when you gamble on really narrow bollinger bands.) SFY Last signal sell or sell short on 25 Mar. Neutral trend but decently high volatility. SHVA Last signal sell short on 31 Mar. Solid downtrend too. Look like free money to me. SMOD Last signal buy to cover on 31 Mar. Still in a downtrend. Support at $20. SOCR Last signal sell short on 1 Apr. Still in a long term downtrend, SUNW Last signal sell short on 17 Mar. Its up against strong resistance at $45 on a downtrend. I don't think its got the muscle to get past it. I still think its a good short. It closed right at $45 on 19 Mar. (31 Mar. note--early for signal, but I think I'd buy to cover anyways.) SYNT Last signal buy on 18 Mar. Still in an uptrend, but it isn't as strong as it was. Look for a break past $37. (30 Mar. note--very close to a sell signal.) TDFX Last signal buy on 27 Mar. Good uptrend play. (26 Mar note--very close to a buy signal.) TMAR Last signal sell or sell short on 25 Mar. Its in a neutral trend with resistance on the upside at $21 5/16. Cover short at about $18. (26 Mar note--surprise upmove today--cover shorts its starting an uptrend--go long.) TMX Last signal sell on 19 Mar. Still on a good uptrend. Look for consolidation. Volatility is up against resistance at the upper band. Another sell signal on 25 Mar if you missed the first sell signal because of the strong uptrend. TRBO Last signal sell short on 23 Mar. On a good downtrend. (24 Mar note--looks like a stop out as TRBO was sitting on support at $7.50 31 Mar. note--looks like it is forming a base for upward move.) TSSW Last signal buy or buy to cover on 27 Mar. Under $5 stock. TTRR Last signal sell or sell short on 30 Mar. Neutral trend increases the risk of a short here. UEIC Last signal sell on 31 Mar. Bias for a downward break. Low volatility, narrow bands and support at $10.50.) VECO Last signal sell on 27 Mar. Good uptrend. I think I'd ignore the signal for now. Wait to see a cross of the middle band on stochastics before selling it. VLSI Last signal buy on 25 Mar. This could be the beginning of the rally I was talking about. Volatility set to increase. (31 Mar. note--it took some patience, but it got the upward break we expected.) WCII Last signal sell on 27 Mar. Looks like I missed the signal. It crossed the middle band. I'd sell even with the strong uptrend. WTT Last signal sell or sell short on 31 Mar. Narrow bands and low volatility gives it a bias for a downward break. XCIT Last signal buy on 25 Mar. Decreasing volatility doesn't make this a very attractive play. (26 Mar note--very low volatility--next move will be a good one.)