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Strategies & Market Trends : Stochastics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wayners who wrote (424)	4/2/1998 4:26:00 PM
From: Jason Loren Bauer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 927

Hello Wayne, I was looking at buying MXIM for a short-term pop. Wasn't up as much or as volitale as some of the other semiconductors today. However, It finsihed up about 1/2 point. What do you think? Also, as per our conversation, I papertraded ORCL as a SHORT SELL. It was down a point today. Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't the TA show this could just be the beginning of a 2 or 3 point haircut???? Thanks in advance. Jason

To: Wayners who wrote (424)	4/2/1998 4:56:00 PM
From: Wayners	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 927

Analysis at close on 4/01/98. Updated AMAT through XCIT. All commentary is at the time of the last signal received except for some of the notes I've inserted. NASDAQ Last signal buy on 1 Apr. Slight uptrend and the volatility is increasing to the upside. ADPT Last signal sell short on 26 Mar. (1 Apr I think I'd buy to cover here in advance of the signal. Covering at the $20 support level would have been the smartest idea.) AMAT Last signal sell on 30 Mar. The trend is still up, but with this one I don't take chances. AMD Last signal buy on 27 Mar. Showing an uptrend. Volatility is low and can really increase a lot. I think AMD is a good one at least through earnings on 7 Apr. (31 Mar. note--this one continued to pay off big today. Getting close to a profit taking sell. Very high volatility--a must for profit taking.) (1 Apr--this is going to end in a countertrend drop for sure. Still have not gotten the sell signal.) AMGN Last signal sell on 16 Mar. AMZN Last signal buy on 30 Mar. I'm expecting a significant break upwards and increase in volatility. Volatility is very very low right now. AOL Last signal buy on 23 Mar. Good solid uptrend still. ARX Last signal buy on 1 Apr. Neutral trend and decreased volatility. Not enough profit potential for me. ASA Last signal sell on 31 Mar. Still on a good uptrend. Can write the $22.50 May calls instead. Volatility is peaked. ASND Last signal sell on 31 Mar. Trend is up slightly. Can write calls instead of selling outright. AVM Last signal buy on 30 Mar. Narrow bands and really low volatility. Still a bias for an upside break. Nice whipsawing effect. An upside break goes to $15. A downside break goes to $12. AVNT Last signal sell on 1 Apr. Real good uptrend so may want to see more of move downward in stochastics before selling. BBIOY Last signal buy to cover on 31 Mar. In a downtrend and volatility is very low--narrow bollinger bands--time to get whipsawed before it picks its breakout direction. BMY Last signal buy on 20 Mar. Good solid uptrend and increasing volatility. (31 Mar note--its recovering now, but the trend is slightly down. Looking for next stochastic peak to bail out of it.) BNYN Last signal sell on 30 Mar. Still in an uptrend but looks like a good place to pick up profits for a less risky play. Volatility is very, very high--which means a good chance for a countertrend drop in price. (2 Apr note--its close to a buy signal) CADE Last signal sell on 31 Mar. Still showing an uptrend. Very high peaked volatility--Countertrend drop is likely. Take profits. CBIZ Last signal buy on 31 Mar. Still in a good uptrend. High current volatility and staying that way. CDRD Last signal buy on 1 Apr. Made a big move today so I'd look for a dip to make an entry intraday. CEXP Last signal buy on 24 Mar. Neutral trend upside potential to $10.50. CFON Last signal buy to cover on 2 Apr. Still on such a solid downtrend that I'd ignore the signal and look for more strenghth (more hook) on stochastics before covering. CIEN Last signal sell on 18 Mar. Stochastics peaked today and give a sell signal. It was up against the resistance at $50 anyways. Did a real nice run from $45 to $48 using the signals. Look for next buy in opportunity--because of the uptrend or sell the $50 calls for Apr. (31 Mar. note--never got the buy signal--that's a good thing.) CKFR Last signal buy on 26 Mar. There was that long awaited signal. The uptrend is still intact. Remember there is still resistance at $24 to $25. (1 Apr note-- Real nice day. Did everybody notice how it held the support exactly at $21.25 as I had posted? Kept everybody in the trade through today's big move.) (2 Apr note--Another great move today. Still don't have a sell signal. Next resistance is $30 if it keeps going up tomorrow.) CLST Last signal buy to cover on 2 Apr. The next short opportunity will be better because the trend will be more stongly down than now. COMS Last signal sell or sell short on 27 Mar. Neutral trend. Cover at bottom bollinger band--$32.50) CORR Last signal buy to cover on 31 Mar. Trend is slightly down. (2 Apr note--Good thing everybody bought to cover right?) CORX Last signal sell on 26 Mar. Can't short under $5. Consider $5 puts if they are available. Support at $1 9/16. (neutral trend and decent volatility). CPQ Last signal sell on 30 Mar. The trend is slightly up which is positive. I think you can buy back in at a lower price however. CTXS Last signal sell on 27 Mar. Real good uptrend though. I think I would ignore the signal.. CYBR Last signal buy to cover on 30 Mar. The trend is down. CYCH Last signal buy on 27 Mar. The trend is neutral on low volatility. The bands are getting narrower. Bias for an upward break for now. CYMI Last signal buy on 1 Apr. Finally a breakout. Everybody jump on board long. CYPB Last signal sell on 31 Mar. Very narrow bands and low volatility. Bias for a good downward break. DELL Last signal sell on 31 Mar. Still in an uptrend. DIMD Last signal buy on 26 Mar. Anticipating the buy signal yesteerday would have paid off today--real good move today. (2 Apr note--bail on long postions on any drop below $14.25) DSYS Last signal sell short on 2 Apr. Nice downtrend and stochastics coming down off a peak. DWRX Last signalsell on 2 Apr. EFII Last signal buy on 26 Mar. (30 Mar. note--now in a slight downtrend making long positions riskier.) FONR Last signal sell short on 23 Mar. Only problem is its under $5.00 and is not marginable. No play. GDT Last signal sell short on 27 Mar. The trend is down. (31 Mar. note--very unusal price move up today. I'd stick with the short for now. Pick an exit to buy to cover just past $75.) GERN Last signal buy to cover on 2 Apr. Cover at the lower bollinger band. HD Last signal buy or buy to cover on 26 Mar. HRSH Last signal buy to cover on 2 Apr. Good downtrend. May want to see more strength, more hook in stochastics before covering the short. IDTC Last signal sell on 30 Mar. The trend is still up and it was an upday from the open. I think I'd ignore the sell signal until I see what it does tomorrow. . IHS Last signal buy on 23 Mar. Good uptrend as it goes to a higher level. IIT Last signal sell on 26 Mar. I think I'd ignore the sell signal. Good uptrend and volatility picking up to the upside. IOM Last signal buy to cover on 30 Mar. Still in a downtrend. Probably forming a base at an important support level--the old $14 level. IRIDF Last signal sell on 26 Mar. (26 Mar note--I had this one as my weekly pick for the game on the APM thread. Picked up 14% for the week. I closed the long positon at the close today.--30 Mar. note this stock won me the game for the week. 31 Mar. note-if you haven't sold already do it now.) JLG Last signal buy on 1 Apr. Decent uptrend still. (2 Apr note--big surprise today downward. I'd bail on a drop below $15.75) KLIC Last signal buy to cover on 25 Mar. Still in a downtrend. LCCI Last signal buy on 31 Mar. Good uptrend. Volatility can increase from here. (2 Apr note--looking weak suddenly on stochastics. Look to bail out.) LSI Last signal sell on 26 Mar. Looks like the beginning of a trend so I think I'd ignore the sell signal. LTBG Last signal buy on 24 Mar. Good solid uptrend. (31 Mar note--close to a sell signal.) LTXX Last signal sell short on 31 Mar. Slight downtrend. MAIN Last signal buy to cover on 1 Apr. On a slight downtrend. MEDA Last signal buy on 2 Apr. I'm thinking run to $12. MIND Last signal buy to cover on 1 Apr. MPDI Last signal sell on 19 Mar. Its right at the $7 resistance level too. (31 Mar. note --This stock is a reminder that in a solid uptrend, it takes a bigger hook for a true sell signal. A good sell signal on this one would be a cross of the middle band on stochastics which has not happened yet. That would have kept us in for more of the trend.) MSFT Last signal buy on 1 Apr. Still strong uptrend. MUEI Last signal sell short on 23 Mar. Good downtrend and peak in stochastics. A break below $11.25 goes to $10. NORT Last signal sell on 26 Mar. Time to take profits. NSCP Last signal buy or buy to cover on 25 Mar. Its been forming a base. Not a solid breakout yet. NTBK Last signal buy on 31 Mar. In a very strong uptrend. ORCL Last signal sell on 27 Mar. Still a good uptrend. OXHP Last signal buy to cover on 23 Mar. PNDA Last signal buy to cover on 2 Apr. Surprise up move today. PRMS Last signal sell on 2 Apr. Looks like a short term top. Still has that slight uptrend going. PSIX Last signal sell on 30 Mar. Still a solid uptrend, but time to take profits or write calls. QCOM Last signal buy on 25 Mar. Looks like its completed its base forming. Jump on long. (31 Mar. note--this one is doing great.) QWST Last signal buy on 27 Mar. Slight uptrend. REMC Last signal buy on 2 Apr. RIG Last signal buy on 1 Apr. RMBS Last signal buy to cover on 31 Mar. See what an upgrade will suddenly do? Very strange. SEEK Last signal sell short on 31 Mar. Narrow band and low volatiliy and a slight downtrend. Definite bias for a downward break. (1 Apr note--forget the short. Should have been stopped out early today. Today's action is what can happen when you gamble on really narrow bollinger bands.) SFY Last signal buy on 2 Apr. Neutral trend but decently high volatility. SHVA Last signal sell short on 31 Mar. Solid downtrend too. Look like free money to me. SMOD Last signal buy to cover on 31 Mar. Still in a downtrend. Support at $20. SOCR Last signal sell short on 1 Apr. Still in a long term downtrend, SUNW Last signal buy to cover on 31 Mar. SYNT Last signal buy on 18 Mar. Still in an uptrend, but it isn't as strong as it was. Look for a break past $37. (30 Mar. note--very close to a sell signal.) TDFX Last signal sell or sell short on 2 Apr. TMAR Last signal sell or sell short on 25 Mar. Its in a neutral trend with resistance on the upside at $21 5/16. Cover short at about $18. (26 Mar note--surprise upmove today--cover shorts its starting an uptrend--go long.) TMX Last signal sell on 19 Mar. Still on a good uptrend. Look for consolidation. Volatility is up against resistance at the upper band. Another sell signal on 25 Mar if you missed the first sell signal because of the strong uptrend. TRBO Last signal sell short on 23 Mar. On a good downtrend. (24 Mar note--looks like a stop out as TRBO was sitting on support at $7.50 31 Mar. note--looks like it is forming a base for upward move.) TSSW Last signal buy or buy to cover on 27 Mar. Under $5 stock. TTRR Last signal sell or sell short on 30 Mar. Neutral trend increases the risk of a short here. UEIC Last signal sell on 31 Mar. Bias for a downward break. Low volatility, narrow bands and support at $10.50.) VECO Last signal sell on 27 Mar. Good uptrend. I think I'd ignore the signal for now. Wait to see a cross of the middle band on stochastics before selling it. VLSI Last signal buy on 25 Mar. This could be the beginning of the rally I was talking about. Volatility set to increase. (31 Mar. note--it took some patience, but it got the upward break we expected.) WCII Last signal sell on 27 Mar. Looks like I missed the signal. It crossed the middle band. I'd sell even with the strong uptrend. WTT Last signal sell or sell short on 31 Mar. Narrow bands and low volatility gives it a bias for a downward break. XCIT Last signal buy on 25 Mar. Decreasing volatility doesn't make this a very attractive play. (26 Mar note--very low volatility--next move will be a good one.)