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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: craig crawford who wrote (1827)	3/31/1998 9:07:00 PM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12623

Let's think about the Bell Atlantic situation a bit. Bell Atlantic has very limited long distance fiber now. It has not been laying fiber like the long distance co's or cable companies. Therefore there is limited long distance fiber to upgrade with Ciena's technology. By far the most interesting part of this story is not $$'s, but the Ciena statement that Bell Atlantic will deploy it's brand new short distance DWDM technology. This is a first. And appropriate for Bell Atlantic's specific situation. It ain't no long distance company. Hopes to be someday but hasn't been and isn't now. But rpt but it is a Baby Bell who has been second only to US West in trying new growth areas and new technologies in its old area - Mid Atlantic. Note this is largely for the old New England stone age system the company has just taken over in its recent merger. All in all, very very positive IMO. The first DWDM sale for short distance.. Remember Ciena has a DWDM for short distances and metro areas. This is Bell Atlantic's bag. A modest contract makes sense to try this brand new technology breakthrough out. More $$ s will follow if it proves out in the real Bell Atlantic world. Suggest we celebrate not cry. Chaz Of course all IMO and I have even been wrong now and then. :-)

To: craig crawford who wrote (1827)	3/31/1998 9:12:00 PM
From: Little Investor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12623

<<If there are only 4 RBOC's aside from BA and they are only worth at most $5-7 million/year I will dump this stock too and apologize for hyping it up to everyone. CIEN better come up with a good explanation for this.>> This also raises the question whether the overall size and expected growth of DWDM market segment is hyped up too much. Or is it that CIEN's share of the pie is shrinking as giants like LU flex their muscles..??

To: craig crawford who wrote (1827)	4/1/1998 3:21:00 AM
From: Tim Bagwell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

<<What leads you to believe that LU will get majority share? >> It's just my opinion Craig based upon what I've surmised. For example, T has already deployed around 1000 WDM systems. Did you know this? And as far as I know they haven't placed many if any orders from CIEN. So who else do you think filled these contracts? And if this is the case then that same vendor is likely to get the bulk of future orders also. My position on this BA deal is that LU is getting a seperate order for several hundred million for other equipment on top of the WDM gear so clearly they will have a much closer working relationship with the customer. It's not a big surprise since they were cut from the same cloth as BA anyway (just like T). Ciena can continue to make money by putting together enough of these small deals but the real money is flowing into LU's pocket. LU continues to be the better investment even though it's valuation seems way out of whack.