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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Melissa McAuliffe who wrote (382)	4/1/1998 2:39:00 PM
From: Rick	Respond to of 4509

Melissa - If we assume that Peoplesoft is interested in acquiring Vantive, then I think sooner rather than later, for the following reasons: 1) Vantive has been rallying lately and there is talk that its quarter is going well. Who knows whether its a strong quarter or the acquisition rumors driving the stock, but the bottom line is it is getting more expensive. 2) Vantive is likely evaluating all of its options including other acquirors, or possibly making acquisitions of its own, to better position itself to take advantage of the Enterprise Software trend. If Peoplesoft doesn't move, it risks losing out. 3) Going alone does not make sense for Vantive or Clarify in my opinion. In the long run companies will want to gravitate to single enterprise supplier relationships. Basically, companies will trade alot in functionality if they can centralize on a single common architecture, especially if the architecture is flexible and app features can be added over time. It's very expensive to have a zillion different skillsets running around the organization. It's also expensive to maintain alot of different supplier relationships. In terms of timing, who knows. I bought some April 30 calls on Vantive, figuring that even if a takeover doesn't happen in the short term, they will likely be aggressive at posting good numbers to be in a better negotiating position with possible acquirors. I like any of the in the money calls on Vantive. I would think 50 is the max takeout price. I like your idea of calls on Clarify, as well. It has been relatively steady at 13 - 16 for a long time. Another possible way to play it is a bull spread position. I am going to look into it. Rick.