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Technology Stocks : Macromedia...making a comeback? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pete who wrote (2142)	4/1/1998 5:56:00 PM
From: celeryroot.com	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2675

My thoughts also, if just earnings I would have expected a pr release disclaiming any knowledge as to why stock up on hugh vol the last 4 days.

To: Pete who wrote (2142)	4/2/1998 5:42:00 PM
From: Charlie J	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2675

I disagree about buyout. This move is not surprising. Look back at my post #2122. I follow this company very closely and I said some time ago that at 8 and 9 it was a really good buy. I said in that last post that I thought it was a good buy at 12. There is still a lot of upside in the stock, but there is one major risk, I think. And that would be another earnings disappointment. The company had a series of these and it just destroyed their stock price. The current upward trend is, in my opinion, simply because some buyers have figured out that this next earnings report is likely to look pretty good (again, see my message #2122). But, one quarter will not be enough. Now Macromedia needs to show two and three quarters strung together of profitability and prove that they have corrected the problems there. If they have this one good quarter and then revert back to the old garbage, the stock will go in the tank again. I think that this is not the most likely scenario, though. The CEO has been in place for almost a year and a half and he is now accountable. He'll have to manage expenses tightly. And the product cycles look really good. Some smart people in the financial community believe that product cycles are the key to evaluating software companies (for example, Mary Meeker, analyst at Morgan Stanley, and Roger McNamee, fund manger at Integral Partners, a very successful equity fund). I happen to agree. The product cycles bode well for Macromedia over the next year or so. This is a company finally moving in the right direction. I don't know why it took so long, but it finally is.