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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (17543)	4/1/1998 6:52:00 PM
From: Thean	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Baird, you raised some important questions and your characterization of the three scenario is a good way to make distinction between all the driller plays. Let me first say that one day does not oil decoupling make. It takes three days. However, I'm most impressed with the 180 degree move today. The first thing I'd watch out tomorrow and the next few days is actually oil price. The momentum built up today will carry into tomorrow. I'm not concerned about this. I'm more concerned about oil going below $15 and stay there. That to me will be the short term momentum killer. What you say about the land drillers make academic sense. Whether things go as planned in reality is a different question. I'm sure you notice how the land drillers lead in terms of percentage gain the last rally? Well they have been compressed so much what we saw was a spring "Boink" effect. We also know that this is one sector that lift all boats or sink all ship, almost indiscriminately (with some exception of course). When it comes earning season I would stay clear of the land drillers but if they were taken down for falling short of earning I would use that as buying opportunity especially if we have a steady uptrend going. One thing never fails - the land drillers always have a highest beta. If you just want to hold till the end of the year, actually on or offshore really does not matter. If you trade on daily and weekly basis like me I would definitely not shun the land because they can provide the biggest bang for the bucks! You asked if I'm back in. Well I have never been out of this sector for 1 1/2 years! I just take a break here and there and love to time the cycles. As to the age old question as to whether this market timing thing really works? For those who have followed my posts long enough you know the answer. For now I'm in PTEN and NBR. Eyeing on ESV as well.