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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (18384)	4/1/1998 7:52:00 PM
From: SMALL FRY	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

GM, Re: Makes me wonder what basis BARS is using for their upgrades. My question exactly... the market responded with gusto(irrational exuberance?)... so I sold everything I got @32.5 today @37.5 except for 100 shares for tracking purposes. I'll reenter @39 if it goes up that far... if not I'll wait for a reload @<33. My "guess" is that we'll hit that resistance @38+ and retrace to the same trading pattern 33 - 35+ for a while longer. I'm reprimed and ready to shoot... What's your take? Best, SF PS: I'm not complaining really...if we keep this trading pattern... most of us would be up 20 before AMAT reaches 40. If that's not a compelling argument to trade during uncertain markets....<VBG>

To: Gottfried who wrote (18384)	4/1/1998 8:51:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, I cannot reference where I heard/read it but someone explained the upgrade from Buy to Strong Buy was because RS did not have such a category before. So this "upgrade" is kind of like a juggling of new "analysts speak" and not an actual upgrade. Either case, I don't think RS is responsible for the 2 point move anyway. Ramsey

To: Gottfried who wrote (18384)	4/1/1998 10:13:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

covered my ASMLF short today at 92.5, when I saw the rest of the group up sharply and ASMLF had not moved yet. Made a bit of money. Oddly, it's down for the day. I expect it to follow the rest of the group up, and then I'll short it again, to hedge my long AMAT position. Something strange is going on here: INTC, CPQ, MOT warn and the sector goes up. DRAM prices keep falling, pushouts keep being announced, earnings for the semi-equips are being steadily lowered, and the group goes up. Apple continues to flounder, and the stock doubles. KLAC warns and the stock is up sharply. Weird, weirder, weirdest. In 1996 I kept on asking, "why are valuations so low, it's not justified by the facts". And the stocks kept dropping. In 1998, I keep asking, "why are valuations so high, it's not justified by the facts." Why is AMAT at a P/S of 3 instead of 1? Objectively, the situation in April 1998 is as bad as August 1996. Big Bucks, it's not a short squeeze, add up how much money it would take to do that, even God's Banker doesn't have that much. It's hard to believe that the sector is being bought based on an expected 1999 or 2000 upturn. Mutual fund managers have never thought that far into the future. Is it just a beta phenomenon, the expected extreme volatility of a cyclical industry with no visibility? Does someone know something I don't? Onward, through the fog, at full throttle.