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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: amoezzi who wrote (8754)4/1/1998 10:29:00 PM
From: uu  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 64865
 
Hello Abdol:

Regretfully I do not possess the so called famous Jamshidi bowl or "Jameh Jahan Nama" in order to see what is to come, otherwise I will be living with absolutely nothing to worry about in a beach front mansion in Tahiti instead of working as mid level R&D manager in Silicon Valley!!!

As for the correction and to avoid repeating myself this is my humble opinion as I stated in this post earlier Message 3896724 .

As for SUNW and why I think it will come back down to $33-$38 range, it is all based on my own speculation that can very well end up being absolutely incorrect! However here is what I base it on:

1. From what I hear Sun has tremendously been increasing its investment in R&D (perhaps at its all time high since its existance as a publicly held company). Although this will have huge long term returns, it will have negative impacts on the earnings in the immediate short term. And considering Sun will most definitely be hurt in revenue and earnings in South East Asia (particularly in Japan) I do not see how they can possibly meet the expectations given their level of R&D spending. Unless of course Europe and/or Middle East come to rescue (thanks mostly to their StarFire line of product).

2. Market perception of the company continues to surround around the concept that Sun is a UNIX based Workstaion and server manufacturer whose market share is diminishing due to WinTel camp's aggressive penetration of the market. Although this is absolutely idiotic, IMHO of course, nevertheless in the stock market it is the perception that often drives the price of a stock, and not neccessarily the fundamentals and factual data!

3. The bullishness of the so called analysts toward Sun is at its highest. This indicates that the current price reflects an absolute perfect scenerio. Should the slightest negative news come out of Sun all these analysts will start beating up on the company!

My investment style has been to buy the shares of a premium tech leader when most (and not neccessarily all) analysts have the stock at hold or underperform (and sometimes if I am fortunate enough when they have it at sell)! This is mainly because the current price would reflect all horrible and bad news! Examples were AMD, and LSI a few months ago! If you look at a company such as CPQ or VLSI, their stock prices reflect practically the worse case scenerio, and in my opinion it is the best time to buy them. In case of Sun, regretfully, a best case scenerio has been built into the stock and god forbids should the slightest negative news come out of the company you will see the stock being punished harshly!

In any event, as I said this is all my humble opinion and I have proven to be absolutely wrong many many times in the past!

Regards,

Addi Jamshidi