To: Night Writer who wrote (7522 ) 4/2/1998 6:11:00 PM From: David Respond to of 26039
Delays and writeoffs . . . . It's not very surprising to me that IDX is taking one-time writeoffs, given its recent acquisition history. When you are buying up a new small company about once a year, you are likely to write off some inventory or consolidate offices, etc. These are just digestion pains. As to the delays . . . I have not been in the stock all that long, but I don't seem to have seen too much of this. I see it more in another small-cap I own; I think the comparatively lumpy cash flow of the smaller companies lends a greater visibility to individual orders. You can also see greater earnings surprises upwards, quarter to quarter, in these smaller companies. As to Rob's concern about cash hitting the bottom line, I think that companies in this phase of their growth cycle are (and should be) reinvesting like crazy, especially if they are in the tech area. Nonetheless, I am pretty sure management here did not expect to report a loss, and would not have planned the "one-time charge" if they knew they would have an order delay. Clearly, the company is generating the lion's share of its revenues from TP-600 sales, and losing money on F3 development, Oracle efforts (which still don't look that good -- come to think of it, maybe it was that Australian 5000 seat deal that hasn't come through, besides Cook County), and other BAT, software-related matters that will emerge over the next year or so. We are also seeing a high number of startups making major league claims. Some of these are not very honest companies. IDID and EOSC come to mind immediately, and we have our suspicions about a couple of others. That tends to raise the static level in this sector. In the past couple of weeks, IDX has announced Sylvan/NASD and Turkey, as well as the latest preannouncement. To me, the recent good news has outweighed the bad news, yet the stock has dropped. Sometimes you are handed opportunities, even if you aren't in the mood for them.