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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Starowl who wrote (1566)	4/3/1998 1:10:00 AM
From: ChiTao	Respond to of 5944

Owning a piece of ADPT is like sitting on the "unsinkable" Titanic. The only difference is - Titanic's Captain sank with the ship. Where is ADPT's? My gut says I have to be extremely lucky to escape from this mess.

To: Starowl who wrote (1566)	4/3/1998 1:37:00 PM
From: The Philosopher	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 5944

Just got a new First Call earnings estimate report, dated 4/2/98. The change in just a week (last report ws 3/26) is 4Q98 consensus estimate down from .33 (3/26 rpt) to .31 (4/2 rpt). Range was .26-.40, now .24 to .40. So the top end guy (is he asleep somewhere?) is still holding out (even though even IR doesn't believe him), while at least one estimate dropped 2 cents. For the year, FY 98 is down from $1.73 to $1.72. [So if three quarters are in the bank and the 4th qtr is revised down 2 cents, how come the whole year goes down only 1 cent??? Is this the new math we've been hearing about??] FY 99 estimate is down from 1.77 (3/26) to $1.73 (4/2). The mean recommendation of brokers dropped a titch, from 2.1 (between buy/hold at 2 and hold at 3) to 2.2. HOWEVER, despite these further downward revisions, the stock is holding unchanged when I checked at 10:15 PST (1:15 EST). Is it possible we have reached the effective bottom unless something awful shows up? And one can only assume that the FY 99 earnings don't yet include anything from Symbios. Hopefully the income from Symbios will be greater than the interest Adpt was earning on the cash they were holding.