To: Ken Pomaranski who wrote (2753 ) 4/3/1998 9:31:00 AM From: Oeconomicus Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
Here's a tissue for you.... Save your tissues Ken. You will need them. It's much better to do what the market tells you to do. Study, study, study. watch prices, watch how trends start, end, reverse. Watch how price patterns develop, what happens when 'shocks' hit. Ken, with all due respect, I think you are confusing simply having the 'nads to ride the wave of euphoria this far with having the expertise of knowing how the "price patterns" would play out. I give you, Ron and everyone else with cannonball sized ones mucho credit, but it will turn as even you admit that this is a speculative bubble.It will be apparent when its happening. Wrong. It will be apparent after it has happened. Only those, like my buddy Ron, who realize that the danger now is in being greedy and trying to squeeze just a little more out of it will get to enjoy the heroic returns of their daredevil investing. An attorney I know well and respect, a very sharp guy (usually), rode a certain high flyer from a modest five fugure investment to around $800,000. He knew it was well beyond any rational valuation levels, but figured that there was so much momentum, so much bearish sentiment, shorts getting squeezed out only to be replaced by more, newer shorts, etc. that there was no way to predict the top. So why not ride it longer, right? When it did turn, it looked at first like all the other little dips on the way up. Soon, it was so far from the top that he started to think it was actually undervalued (perhaps he just didn't want to admit that he really should have sold a long time ago) and it would occasionally rally to convince him that there may be some juice left in it. I think he eventually sold, still at a decent profit compared to his original investment, but actually a several hundred thousand dollar loss compared to what he once had. Hats off to Ron BTW. I guess I'd rather that is was the friendly, non-gloating longs who got to walk away at the top (better early than late), but I won't knock success. The best gambler is not the one that stays at the table the longest, but the one that leaves the table with the most money, regardless of how obnoxious he is about it. Bob