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Biotech / Medical : CEPH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RealMuLan who wrote (621)	4/3/1998 12:06:00 PM
From: Craig Ferguson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 998

Response to question on Myotrophin results: yeah, sneak into FDA offices, break open filing cabinet, and take microfilm pictures of results, please post here before D-day Thursday, thanks in advance:) How low can it go? Low. Not as bad as that drop last year from 22 to 11, but seeing the runnup from 11 to 15.5 in the past 3 weeks, I'd say the downside is now down to single digits somewhere, mabey 8 or 9? If you want to play it safe, and you can trade options, create a spread. Buy puts out of the money, and calls out of the money, you win a small but noticeable profit when the stock moves violently in either direction. You lose if it doesn't move much at all (not likely). But the upside potential overides the downside potential. Look at CORR this week, 10 points up in one day. That's the potential here as well, you will see either CEPH at 9 or CEPH at 20 come Friday. Do you buy lottery tickets? Well buying April 20 calls are like cheap lottery tickets. Ten contracts for under $150 could give you a very quick $2000 profit, and minimize your loss to that $150. If you buy truckloads of the stock, it's going to be a very restless night Thursday awaiting the results. I'm thinking geez, this company failed twice before by not providing enough research (see other more detailed posts by other knowledgable people), and now they have had another year to clean up their research and re-present. Now from laymans terme, if I was told twice my results were not good enough and my company was riding on this drug, I'd make damm good and sure the third time I complied with what the FDA wanted. So, I see greater potential at Myotrophin getting approved here. Then keep in mind I'm only a daytrader, I'm just following this because there's a potential buck to be made, and that's all I'm about.

To: RealMuLan who wrote (621)	4/3/1998 7:02:00 PM
From: Hanney Yin	Respond to of 998

Zhang, you are talking about the risk/reward, I believe per S&P report, the worse it will go is about $8-10, however, the upside potential is huge. Now, what it be a good idea to buy a put 12.5 put in addition to long stock which is the same as long calls. so if you buy it today at 15, the most you will lose on stocks is 2.5/shr, and the put will gain $3 to compensate. so your donwside risk is really low. your upside potential might be $5-8, if you are willing to pay $1 for put, which means you only get $4-7. Well, we cannot be too greedy. regards. H. Jian Yin