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Technology Stocks : THREE FIVE SYSTEM (TFS) - up from here? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Franklin M. Humphreys who wrote (1218)4/3/1998 7:54:00 PM
From: Noblesse Oblige  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3247
 
Hi Franklin....

I don't understand the logic of your sales. My complaint with management is that they aren't doing *enough* to bring the valuation of TFS up to the average market valuation.

No minor splits...no proactive public relations to speak of...no attempts to arrange financing for the purpose of attracting additional analysts for coverage, etc., etc., etc.

In short, I think the stock is undervalued *because* of them, but even a stopped clock is right twice a day. In other words, Franklin, eventually (even if it is after my departure from this earth ) the shares will get at least an average valuation. Right now, that means somewhere in the high 20's based on an earnings estimate of roughly $1.10.

I am sorry that you have chosen this path, and that in some bizarre way you have credited me with affecting you so that you are forced to do it.

If you haven't finished selling.......STOP NOW! At least wait for the conference call. Mr. Buchanan and the rest of the gang at TFS no doubt will be doing the best they can on that call (in the hope of increasing the value of the company) in order to deflate potential "trouble" at the annual meeting, barely two weeks later.

At least I would. After all, I am not stupid.



To: Franklin M. Humphreys who wrote (1218)4/3/1998 8:32:00 PM
From: raefon  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 3247
 
Franklin,
I continue to add to both personal and client positions. I bought stock personally at the $19 level today. I also tried to buy stock on the close as First Analysis came in as a buyer late in the day. I left stock on the "book" at $18 7/8 and $19 hoping for a trade at the bell. I agree with Noblesse as I usually do. The stock is not a sale at these levels for the following near-term reasons:
1)Management understands the estimate game. After reducing expectations to $.12 or $.13, even with a sequentially weaker quarter (for all the reasons we have discussed on this thread)we now have a shot to "suprise" as perverse as that may sound.
2)We know there are going to be sizeable orders for production in q-2. Because TFS chooses not to announce until they have a firm production order, I expect several over the next 30 days or so.
3)We have not yet seen any orders for LCiD, or any other home grown technologies. The company continues to suggest they are coming...and so indicated in the annual report. The orders do appear behind the schedule opined by David Buchanan at last years annual meeting...
4)to make the $1.00 plus estimate for the year, the company has to put up $.88 plus in the last three quarters, once the seasonably weak first quarter is behind us, the filing documents have indicated significant growth.
5)With the expansion plans and the need to finance expensive Lcos inventory, a financing (I know Noblesse is saying from your mouth to gods ear)is IMHO, likely within the next 12-18 months.

As I indicated in a previous post, While I am frustrated, I am not a seller at these levels.