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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dr. Bob who wrote (18536)	4/4/1998 4:37:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Bob - that existing fabs are finding ways to be more efficient at the 200mm level, with die shrinks, etc., which while requiring some equipment upgrades, is not driving equipment purchases at the level previously anticipated, and won't until 300mm becomes a more efficient way to go. There are actually two different issues here. The first is the upgrade to 300mm, and the second is shrinks. For fabs upgrading to 300mm, I suspect that no one can really predict when that will happen, just as it is very difficult to predict market crashes. In both cases no one wants to be first, and no one wants to be last, so there tends to be a mad rush at some point. As for the move to 300mm being required to support the SEMI companies - I don't believe it. (Although when it does happen, watch out.) After all, the semi industry did ok in '97 without the upgrade. However, I've never had a good grasp of the equipment needed to perform a shrink. When MU moves from 0.35 to 0.25 to 0.18 how much new equipment are they going to need? A lot of it depends on how new their equipment is, so this is very very hard to get a handle on. My suspicion is that most of the equipment out there is from the last big upgrade cycle in 94 and 95. What floated the SEMI industry in late 96 and 97 was the minimal investment necessary to upgrade some of the equipment to perform shrinks. But I suspect the time limit on that is running out. The equipment is getting too old (3 or 4 years is old in this business). However, I don't have any reliable info. (Really good survey idea - How much equipment would be needed to upgrade to the next line width for every major manufacturer.) Clark PS Interesting dynamic. I would expect a pause, like Intel's, just before (6 months to 1 year) the mad rush to 300mm. The reason is exactly the same as that which causes PC sales to slump just before Microsoft introduces a new operating system. The orders will all come pouring in once the first full system(s) have been in operation for 2 or 3 months.