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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: cellhigh who wrote (6206)4/5/1998 12:35:00 PM
From: Mama Bear  Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 18691
 
ronald, I think you are making the typical mistake of the non shorter, that one would hold a short no matter what happens. Shorting is inherently a short term strategy, and shorts cover and move on. Some here are obsessed with the high RS stocks like YHOO. They seem overpriced. I prefer the low RS stocks that have been pumped up temporarily on fluff. I am currently short ENML from 19 5/8, AVNT from 29 1/2 and PNDA from 5 11/16. AVNT may be being closed soon, if it acts in a certain way. And I am light on shorts right now because of the current bull market. But while the bull market roars, there are in fact some stocks that are failing. I did manage to make a little money shorting CIEN last year, and covered the position in late August. Someone who wanted to taunt me about my shorting found the post where I said I thought it a good short and tried to throw it in my face last month. The fact is, I've been out of CIEN since the middle of last year. Oh, BTW, CIEN was from before I put the ban on shorting high RS stocks in my port.I'm just not sure how valid the stocks from 1/1/98 are today. I believe I recall Roger saying that he'd covered most of his shorts in February, I'd assume that would include the list at the top of the thread.

A well balanced portfolio includes shorts. Not shorting is like going into a prize fight against Mike Tyson with one hand tied behind your back. I believe that there aren't too many of us who only short, that would be like having the other arm tied behind the back. Someday this bull market will end, and my shorts will seriously outperform, while those that choose to do only longs will suffer. It is disingenuous to think that a mania like is present currently can go on unabated. Enjoy your day, it may end sooner than you think.

Barb



To: cellhigh who wrote (6206)4/5/1998 1:59:00 PM
From: Roger A. Babb  Respond to of 18691
 
Ron, you have to remember that short traders trade in and out frequently. We usually don't just sit on a position, may trade it several times in a single day. It is possible to make money from the short side on rising stocks so long as they move in a zig zag pattern as most do. I have profited from yhoo and other internet shorts this year. My only large loss is in CTXS where I am so convinced of the outcome that I have refused to cover on the dips for fear of missing the crash and have just sat on the position with increasing losses.

Short traders are usually semi-professionals, if not professional, and as such will rarely post their profits or losses. But it is safe to say that few of the traders who frequent this thread are losing much money.