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To: Sonki who wrote (18901)	4/5/1998 5:52:00 PM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27012

Sonki, thanks for list. Agree with most. Worry about continuing margin pressures for intc though. Merced much promise but perhpas slow start. Doug

To: Sonki who wrote (18901)	4/5/1998 7:09:00 PM
From: dougjn	Respond to of 27012

Way OT. Sonki, saw that you are in TBR again. (I'm not at this point but was casting an eye, given recent pullback.) Saw this on theStreet.com (which I think highly of). Haven't closely thought about it, but thought you might find interesting: ----snip----- Clock Ticking for Telebras Cellulars This week's successful bid for the succulent Rio de Janeiro cellular license should leave Telebras (TBR:NYSE ADR) holders quivering. The Algar consortium won the Rio area contest with a highly aggressive bid in which it paid a massive sum for the license (1.5 billion Reals) and offered fees way below those currently charged by Telerj, the Telebras subsidiary that serves the city. Telebras will get broken up in a few months, and shareholders will receive shares in 13 successor companies, including four large wireline entities and eight cellular ones. (For a more detailed discussion of the plan, click here and here.) The ferocity of Algar's bid must raise serious questions about the prospects of those eight cellular companies. True, they are going to be sold this summer to cash-rich strategic investors that could galvanize management. But the days of easy profits are well and truly over. Telerj currently charges R308 for a cellular line; Algar is going to give the same line for only R49. Yet, some analysts are not predicting a total bloodbath -- in Rio de Janeiro, at least. The feeling is that Algar has been excessively aggressive and will find it tough to make money at the fees they intend to charge. Plus, the company only has a short period in which to gear up for to compete against Telerj's operations. However, these arguments do not apply to the City and State Sao Paulo, where the huge but inefficient cellular business of Telebras subsidiary Telesp looks extremely vulnerable. A consortium led by BellSouth (BLS:NYSE) won the Sao Paulo city license last July to compete against Telesp's cellular operations. Zain Manekia, Latin telecom analyst at SBC Warburg, is expecting BellSouth to steamroll Telesp's successor cellular company, which will cover both Sao Paulo state and city. The consortium has a raft of advantages over Telesp's business that will enable it to steal high-usage top-end customers. Unlike Telesp, it has the technological ability to offer voicemail and caller ID as well as the extra capacity to offer free minutes. "I expect BellSouth to take as many as 15% of Telesp's top customers very early on," says Manekia. Competition like that makes the Amazonian jungle seem like a playground. Brazil Stuck in Stop-Go Stagnation Ready-made excuses were quickly rolled out by Brazil bulls to try and explain away a preliminary March trade deficit figure, which, at $818 million, was double analysts' predictions. Here's the best rationalization: Soy exports that normally go out in March were delayed by wet weather. True, no doubt. But the fact remains that this monster deficit was registered, even though the government recently slammed the brakes on the economy by doubling interest rates. A recession-bound economy should import a lot less. Should. Exclaims Arturo Porzecanski, chief emerging markets economist at ING Barings: "The country's hardly going to grow this year, and it will have a $30 billion trade deficit." As soon as economic activity picks up, the trade deficit will run even deeper with red ink. And that higher growth could start to cut in just before the October presidential elections. Political volatility combined with fears of resurgent current account problems. The markets are going to love that. When the trade deficit gets really bad again, the Brazilians may not have the political will for another strangulating interest rate hike. The politicians could decide to devalue the Real. The bears are betting on this happening early in 1999. ------snip------ Doug

To: Sonki who wrote (18901)	4/5/1998 7:49:00 PM
From: ANANT	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27012

sonki: "Inside Intel" The Future : here is a link to an interesting article from today NY TIMES nytimes.com anant

To: Sonki who wrote (18901)	4/8/1998 1:22:00 PM
From: Sonny McWilliams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27012

Sonki. I just read all the post while away. I will answer your post. Yes, you had answered my post. Good going on lly. Dell is up today despite a downgrade the other day. MO is up. It looks like the agreement with the Govt is about to fall apart. LU is up again today. A lot of the analysts are calling for a higher stock price on LU. LU had a report out where they have formed some kind of alliance in South America with another company in the wireless field I believe. It's hard to keep up without a computer. gg. Anyway, in that part of the world that alliance increased their business 6 fold. I guess the PE sounds pretty high but if they can increase their business at a fast pace all over, maybe it's not that high after all. biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com Intel is showing new products on April 15th somewhere. Dell will have a conf. call tomorrow. AMD will outpace Intel pretty soon. Went from an estimated loss of 29 to 39. Hm, wait a minute. I am not sure if that's so good. ;) But they COULD improve their yield by the end of the year it was said. That could hurt Intel. gg. AMD was losing more compared to Intel earning a little less. Oh well. Let's hope that Intel comes out better than a 10% decline then it could be touting just like AMD. OK, just thought I check in quick. Wow, we had DOW 9000. Was great for the DOW. At least the NAZ is up today. Talk to you later. Sonny PS. Hi and bye everyone.